FNUS75 KBOU 041202 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR SUGARLOAF F1...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 500 AM MST FRI DEC 4 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES SHOULD BRING INCREASING WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS TO THE BURN SITE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER SMOKE DISPERSION BY AFTERNOON WITH BRIEFLY GOOD DISPERSAL POSSIBLE BETWEEN 1300 AND 1500. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BACK INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1100...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....24. MIN HUMIDITY........30-35%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......BREEZY. WEST 20-29 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 28-36 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...FAIR UNTIL 1300...GOOD UNTIL 1500...THEN FAIR HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....11. MAX HUMIDITY........63%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDY. WEST 23-32 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 28-32 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1900...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1700...THEN CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 1700. MAX TEMPERATURE.....31. MIN HUMIDITY........34%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......BREEZY. WEST 20-29 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH UNTIL 1200. UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH AFTER 1500. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 29-40 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3200-4200 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. VERY GOOD AFTER 1400. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600...THEN SNOW LIKELY UNTIL 1800...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER. LOWS AROUND 10. HIGHS AROUND 16. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 6. HIGHS AROUND 18. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1800...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 6. HIGHS AROUND 17. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR SUGARLOAF F1. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 12/04-04 44 0 1 46 W 21 1 579 W 22 10488 P 12/04-05 13 0 1 48 W 20 31 3 1 N46 448 W 23 8766 P 12/04-06 13 0 0 51 W 21 1 576 W 28 15112 P 12/04-07 13 0 1 54 W 23 1 704 W 33 21457 P 12/04-08 13 0 4 53 W 25 40 4 1 N60 831 W 38 27802 P 12/04-09 13 0 11 42 W 25 1 1241 W 36 35542 P 12/04-10 13 0 16 39 W 24 1 1651 NW 32 43282 F 12/04-11 62 0 19 37 W 23 37 4 1 N66 2062 NW 29 51022 F 12/04-12 62 0 21 35 W 23 1 2030 NW 29 50130 F 12/04-13 62 0 22 33 W 23 1 1998 NW 29 49239 F 12/04-14 62 0 23 33 W 24 39 4 1 N59 1966 NW 29 48348 F 12/04-15 62 0 22 33 W 25 1 1719 NW 30 43636 F 12/04-16 62 0 22 33 W 26 1 1472 W 31 38924 P 12/04-17 35 0 20 36 W 26 43 3 1 N41 1224 W 32 34212 P 12/04-18 35 0 18 40 W 26 1 1083 W 32 29990 P 12/04-19 35 0 17 43 W 25 1 941 W 31 25767 P 12/04-20 35 0 16 45 W 25 40 3 1 NW39 799 W 31 21545 P 12/04-21 35 0 14 52 W 25 1 626 W 31 16738 P 12/04-22 35 0 14 54 W 25 1 452 W 30 11931 P 12/04-23 35 0 13 57 W 26 43 5 1 NW32 278 W 30 7124 P 12/05-00 35 0 13 58 W 28 1 242 W 30 6321 P 12/05-01 35 0 12 61 W 29 1 206 W 31 5518 P 12/05-02 35 0 12 61 W 29 46 5 1 W44 169 W 32 4716 P 12/05-03 35 0 12 62 W 29 1 174 W 32 4909 P 12/05-04 35 0 13 61 W 29 1 179 W 33 5103 P 12/05-05 58 0 12 62 W 28 44 4 1 W35 183 W 33 5296 P 12/05-06 58 0 12 63 W 26 1 193 W 32 5440 P 12/05-07 58 0 12 61 W 26 1 203 W 32 5583 P 12/05-08 58 0 14 55 W 25 40 3 1 W55 212 W 31 5727 P 12/05-09 58 0 19 45 W 24 1 668 W 35 22713 P 12/05-10 58 0 23 39 W 24 1 1123 W 38 39698 P 12/05-11 58 0 26 35 W 22 35 3 1 W52 1578 W 41 56684 F 12/05-12 58 0 29 34 W 18 1 2454 W 38 77627 G 12/05-13 58 0 30 34 W 14 1 3329 W 36 98571 G 12/05-14 58 0 30 35 W 10 10 2 1 W56 4205 W 32 119514 V 12/05-15 58 0 30 36 W 7 1 4167 W 31 112812 V 12/05-16 58 0 28 38 W 5 1 4130 W 30 106111 V 12/05-17 99 30 25 43 W 2 2 2 1 W56 4093 W 28 99409 G 12/05-18 99 30 23 48 CALM 1 3617 W 24 77796 G 12/05-19 99 30 21 52 CALM 1 3141 SW 20 56183 F 12/05-20 99 30 20 55 SW 2 2 2 1 W60 2665 SW 15 34570 P 12/05-21 99 30 20 60 S 3 1 2790 SW 14 33895 P 12/05-22 99 30 19 65 S 5 1 2914 SW 13 33221 P 12/05-23 99 40 18 68 SE 6 6 2 1 W63 3039 SW 13 32546 P 12/06-00 99 40 18 65 SE 7 1 3172 S 13 36082 P 12/06-01 99 40 17 62 SE 7 1 3305 S 14 39619 P 12/06-02 99 40 16 59 SE 7 7 2 1 W66 3438 S 15 43155 F 12/06-03 99 40 15 61 SE 7 1 3335 S 13 38537 P 12/06-04 99 40 15 65 E 7 1 3231 S 12 33918 P 12/06-05 96 60 14 69 E 7 7 2 1 SW54 3128 S 10 29300 P 12/06-06 96 60 14 68 E 8 1 3287 S 10 30964 P 12/06-07 96 60 13 69 E 9 1 3446 S 10 32627 P 12/06-08 96 60 13 66 E 10 10 2 1 SW37 3605 S 12 34291 P 12/06-09 96 60 14 65 E 12 1 3964 S 12 39437 P 12/06-10 96 60 15 65 E 12 1 4324 S 12 44582 F 12/06-11 96 60 15 66 E 12 12 2 1 SW39 4683 S 13 49728 F 12/06-12 96 60 16 69 E 10 1 4738 SW 14 57679 F 12/06-13 96 60 16 73 E 9 1 4792 SW 16 65630 G 12/06-14 96 60 16 77 E 8 8 2 1 SW45 4847 SW 17 73582 G 12/06-15 96 60 16 82 E 7 1 4777 SW 20 79311 G 12/06-16 96 60 15 88 E 6 1 4707 W 21 85041 G 12/06-17 96 51 13 94 E 5 5 2 1 W55 4636 W 23 90770 G 12/06-18 96 51 12 93 E 3 1 4489 W 22 86809 G 12/06-19 96 51 11 87 SE 2 1 4341 W 22 82847 G 12/06-20 96 51 11 82 SE 2 2 2 1 W59 4193 W 22 78886 G 12/06-21 96 51 11 79 S 2 1 3850 W 23 74770 G 12/06-22 96 51 10 78 SW 2 1 3508 W 23 70654 G 12/06-23 96 51 10 78 SW 2 2 2 1 W77 3166 W 24 66539 G 12/07-00 96 51 10 78 SW 2 1 2748 W 22 54690 F 12/07-01 96 51 9 79 SE 2 1 2329 SW 21 42841 F 12/07-02 96 51 9 79 SE 2 2 2 1 W87 1911 SW 18 30992 P 12/07-03 96 51 9 79 E 2 1 1762 SW 16 25194 P 12/07-04 96 51 8 80 E 3 1 1612 SW 14 19396 P 12/07-05 85 40 8 81 E 3 3 2 1 W63 1463 SW 10 13598 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...PAT OWENS REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20091204.SUGAR.01/BOU