FNUS75 KBOU 101228 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR A-BAY...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 516 AM MST THU DEC 10 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A STRONG NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. STRONG WINDS COUPLED WITH A FAVORABLE MIXING LAYER SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE GOOD SMOKE DISPERSAL CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO COLORADO FROM THE WEST. WEAKER WINDS AND LESS OF A MIXING LAYER WILL RESULT IN ONLY FAIR SMOKE DISPERSAL CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....17-23. MIN HUMIDITY........28-32%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 5-11 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 21-32 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-3500 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1300...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....-8 TO -14. MAX HUMIDITY........90-95%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 4-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1400-2200 FT AGL UNTIL 1900...THEN 200-600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1800...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....21-26. MIN HUMIDITY........32-36%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST UP TO 4 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN WEST 7-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 4-12 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 13-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-1800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1300...THEN FAIR. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 1800. LOWS AROUND 2. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1800. LOWS AROUND 7. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 6. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR A-BAY. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 12/10-05 60 0 -5 67 W 8 8 2 1 NW89 1852 W 20 31956 P 12/10-06 60 0 -5 71 W 8 1 1943 W 20 31682 P 12/10-07 60 0 -5 72 W 7 1 2033 W 18 31410 P 12/10-08 60 0 -2 67 W 7 7 2 1 W89 2124 W 17 31136 P 12/10-09 60 0 5 51 W 6 1 2885 W 21 56354 F 12/10-10 60 0 10 41 W 6 1 3646 W 24 81572 G 12/10-11 60 0 15 34 W 6 6 2 1 W84 4406 W 29 106791 V 12/10-12 60 0 19 31 W 7 1 4587 W 31 123615 V 12/10-13 60 0 20 30 W 8 1 4769 W 35 140439 V 12/10-14 60 0 21 31 W 9 9 2 1 W84 4949 W 37 157264 E 12/10-15 60 0 20 33 W 9 1 4413 W 33 129813 V 12/10-16 60 0 18 36 W 9 1 3876 W 30 102362 V 12/10-17 49 0 11 50 W 8 8 2 1 W87 3339 W 26 74911 G 12/10-18 49 0 7 59 W 8 1 2445 W 22 52210 F 12/10-19 49 0 4 64 W 7 1 1552 W 17 29510 P 12/10-20 49 0 2 66 W 7 7 2 1 W83 659 W 12 6809 P 12/10-21 49 0 1 66 W 6 1 557 W 9 5066 P 12/10-22 49 0 -1 66 NW 3 1 456 W 7 3324 P 12/10-23 49 0 -2 65 NW 2 2 2 1 W74 354 W 5 1581 P 12/11-00 49 0 -4 67 NW 2 1 297 W 5 1268 P 12/11-01 49 0 -5 68 NW 2 1 240 W 5 954 P 12/11-02 49 0 -7 69 NW 3 3 2 1 NW64 184 NW 5 640 P 12/11-03 49 0 -8 71 NW 3 1 167 NW 3 540 P 12/11-04 49 0 -9 74 NW 2 1 151 NW 3 440 P 12/11-05 71 0 -11 81 N 2 2 3 1 W58 134 NW 3 339 P 12/11-06 71 0 -12 89 N 2 1 141 NW 3 346 P 12/11-07 71 0 -12 95 NW 2 1 147 NW 2 352 P 12/11-08 71 0 -9 90 NW 2 2 3 1 W52 153 NW 2 359 P 12/11-09 71 0 -2 79 NW 3 1 576 NW 6 5230 P 12/11-10 71 0 11 58 W 3 1 998 W 9 10100 P 12/11-11 71 0 15 56 SW 5 5 3 1 W47 1421 W 13 14971 P 12/11-12 71 0 19 49 SW 5 1 1915 W 16 28945 P 12/11-13 71 0 24 38 W 6 1 2409 W 20 42919 F 12/11-14 71 0 25 34 W 6 6 3 1 W49 2904 W 23 56893 F 12/11-15 71 0 26 34 W 6 1 2316 W 20 42121 F 12/11-16 71 0 22 40 W 6 1 1727 W 16 27350 P 12/11-17 87 3 17 51 W 6 6 2 1 W48 1139 W 13 12578 P 12/11-18 87 3 13 60 W 6 1 863 W 10 8710 P 12/11-19 87 3 10 66 N 5 1 587 NW 7 4843 P 12/11-20 87 3 7 73 N 5 5 2 1 W44 311 NW 3 975 P 12/11-21 87 3 5 83 N 5 1 299 NW 3 805 P 12/11-22 87 3 3 92 NE 5 1 288 N 2 635 P 12/11-23 87 7 3 96 NE 5 5 2 1 W43 277 NE 2 465 P 12/12-00 87 7 4 94 NE 5 1 291 N 2 494 P 12/12-01 87 7 4 90 NE 3 1 304 N 2 523 P 12/12-02 87 7 3 94 N 3 3 2 1 W46 318 NW 2 552 P 12/12-03 87 7 2 97 N 3 1 305 NW 2 691 P 12/12-04 87 7 2 97 N 3 1 293 NW 3 831 P 12/12-05 82 8 1 100 N 3 3 2 1 W45 281 NW 5 970 P 12/12-06 82 8 1 100 NW 3 1 313 W 6 1620 P 12/12-07 82 8 1 100 W 5 1 345 W 7 2270 P 12/12-08 82 8 3 100 W 6 6 2 1 W41 377 W 9 2919 P 12/12-09 82 8 9 90 W 7 1 1271 W 15 26556 P 12/12-10 82 8 17 79 W 8 1 2166 W 22 50193 F 12/12-11 82 8 20 81 W 10 10 2 1 W41 3061 W 28 73829 G 12/12-12 82 8 23 75 W 13 1 3621 W 30 93664 G 12/12-13 82 8 26 64 W 15 1 4182 W 31 113498 V 12/12-14 82 8 27 58 SW 16 24 2 1 W51 4743 W 33 133333 V 12/12-15 82 8 27 56 SW 16 1 3946 W 30 106403 V 12/12-16 82 8 24 61 SW 16 1 3149 W 28 79474 G 12/12-17 77 10 20 73 SW 15 22 2 1 W55 2351 W 25 52544 F 12/12-18 77 10 16 85 W 14 1 1670 W 22 36214 P 12/12-19 77 10 13 93 W 13 1 988 W 17 19884 P 12/12-20 77 10 10 100 W 12 12 2 1 W41 306 W 14 3554 P 12/12-21 77 10 8 100 W 10 1 265 W 13 2887 P 12/12-22 77 10 7 100 W 9 1 223 W 12 2220 P 12/12-23 77 10 6 100 W 8 8 2 1 W46 181 W 10 1553 P 12/13-00 77 10 7 98 W 8 1 170 W 9 1431 P 12/13-01 77 10 8 95 SW 8 1 158 SW 9 1309 P 12/13-02 77 10 6 100 SW 8 8 2 1 W61 147 SW 9 1187 P 12/13-03 77 10 6 100 SW 9 1 134 SW 10 1147 P 12/13-04 77 10 5 100 SW 9 1 120 SW 12 1108 P 12/13-05 88 10 4 100 SW 10 10 2 W56 106 SW 12 1069 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...SULPHUR RANGER DISTRICT ARAPAHO-ROOSEVELT NF REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20091210.ABAY_.01/BOU