FNUS75 KBOU 151352 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR JAMES CREEK...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 650 AM MST TUE DEC 15 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY BENEATH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TODAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A BIG CONCERN THIS MORNING...BUT AS THE A PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TIGHTENS THIS AFTERNOON GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH MAY DEVELOP IN THE AREA OF THE BURN. OVERNIGHT EVEN STRONGER GUSTS MAY DEVELOP IN OPEN AREAS BUT AGAIN THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE GUSTY AND ERRATIC IN CHARACTER AND NOT CONTINUOUS. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1100...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....39-44. MIN HUMIDITY........24-29%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY WEST 6-10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN WEST 13-19 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 32 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 17-28 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 32-40 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3600-4600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0930...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1100... THEN GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1600...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 0300...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....28. MAX HUMIDITY........36%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 16-23 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 24-32 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......800-1800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1100...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....44. MIN HUMIDITY........23%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......BREEZY. WEST 20-27 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 20-28 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-3000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1700...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 1800. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS AROUND 40. WEST WINDS AROUND 17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1800. LOWS AROUND 19. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 11 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 17. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 11 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR JAMES CREEK. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 12/15-06 46 0 22 47 W 14 1 692 W 17 10340 P 12/15-07 46 0 21 47 W 14 1 598 W 17 8779 P 12/15-08 68 0 21 46 W 14 25 3 1 W48 504 W 16 7218 P 12/15-09 68 0 25 42 W 14 1 1385 W 21 31374 P 12/15-10 68 0 30 36 W 14 1 2267 W 25 55531 F 12/15-11 59 0 34 32 W 14 25 2 1 W47 3148 W 29 79688 G 12/15-12 59 0 36 30 W 16 1 3973 W 32 116243 V 12/15-13 59 0 37 30 W 17 1 4799 W 36 152799 E 12/15-14 39 0 37 30 W 20 36 2 1 NW55 5625 W 39 189354 E 12/15-15 39 0 37 30 W 20 1 4796 W 39 162276 E 12/15-16 39 0 36 30 W 21 1 3967 W 39 135198 V 12/15-17 57 0 36 30 W 22 39 2 1 NW49 3137 W 39 108121 V 12/15-18 57 0 35 30 W 21 1 1820 W 32 51075 F 12/15-19 57 0 34 29 W 20 1 1636 W 31 44759 F 12/15-20 50 0 33 29 W 18 33 2 1 W41 1452 W 30 38442 P 12/15-21 50 0 33 28 W 18 1 1313 W 31 34786 P 12/15-22 50 0 32 28 W 18 1 1174 W 31 31130 P 12/15-23 45 0 32 29 W 20 36 3 1 NW31 1034 W 31 27475 P 12/16-00 45 0 30 31 W 20 1 900 W 31 24410 P 12/16-01 45 0 29 34 W 20 1 766 W 32 21345 P 12/16-02 61 0 28 36 W 20 36 3 1 NW23 631 W 33 18280 P 12/16-03 61 0 28 35 W 21 1 580 W 31 15649 P 12/16-04 61 0 28 34 W 21 1 529 W 28 13017 P 12/16-05 60 0 29 31 W 21 37 3 1 NW41 568 W 24 12018 P 12/16-06 60 0 28 32 W 24 1 512 W 24 10653 P 12/16-07 60 0 29 31 W 24 1 455 W 23 9287 P 12/16-08 60 0 30 31 W 23 37 2 1 NW22 398 W 23 7922 P 12/16-09 60 0 33 28 W 23 1 1101 W 24 23580 P 12/16-10 60 0 37 26 W 22 1 1803 W 24 39239 P 12/16-11 48 0 40 24 W 22 35 3 1 NW10 2505 W 25 54897 F 12/16-12 48 0 42 23 W 22 1 2769 W 23 54159 F 12/16-13 48 0 43 23 W 22 1 3033 W 21 53421 F 12/16-14 48 0 43 24 W 22 35 3 1 W16 3297 NW 18 52683 F 12/16-15 48 0 43 24 W 22 1 2788 W 20 47116 F 12/16-16 48 0 42 25 W 22 1 2279 W 22 41550 F 12/16-17 37 0 39 28 W 22 35 3 1 NW20 1770 W 23 35983 P 12/16-18 37 0 37 30 W 23 1 1553 W 23 31438 P 12/16-19 37 0 36 32 W 23 1 1336 W 23 26892 P 12/16-20 37 0 35 33 W 23 37 3 1 N23 1120 W 23 22346 P 12/16-21 37 0 34 34 W 22 1 1106 W 21 20463 P 12/16-22 37 0 34 35 W 21 1 1092 NW 20 18580 P 12/16-23 37 0 33 36 W 18 30 3 1 NW20 1078 NW 17 16696 P 12/17-00 37 0 33 37 W 17 1 899 W 16 13343 P 12/17-01 37 0 32 38 W 16 1 720 W 15 9990 P 12/17-02 37 0 31 39 W 15 24 4 1 W24 541 W 14 6637 P 12/17-03 37 0 30 40 W 14 1 447 W 14 5495 P 12/17-04 37 0 30 40 W 14 1 353 W 14 4353 P 12/17-05 58 5 29 41 W 14 22 3 1 W33 259 W 14 3212 P 12/17-06 58 5 29 41 W 14 1 285 W 14 3500 P 12/17-07 58 5 28 42 W 14 1 310 W 14 3788 P 12/17-08 58 5 29 40 W 14 22 3 1 W48 336 W 14 4075 P 12/17-09 58 5 32 37 W 13 1 1343 W 18 29979 P 12/17-10 58 5 34 34 W 13 1 2350 W 23 55883 F 12/17-11 58 5 37 32 W 13 13 2 1 W46 3358 W 28 81786 G 12/17-12 58 5 38 32 W 15 1 3644 W 31 99750 G 12/17-13 58 5 39 32 W 17 1 3930 W 35 117714 V 12/17-14 58 5 39 33 W 20 31 3 1 NW23 4215 NW 37 135678 V 12/17-15 58 5 39 33 W 21 1 3518 W 35 109464 V 12/17-16 58 5 38 33 W 22 1 2821 W 33 83250 G 12/17-17 69 20 33 37 W 22 35 2 1 NW43 2124 W 31 57036 F 12/17-18 69 20 31 41 W 22 1 1788 W 30 46937 F 12/17-19 69 20 30 43 W 22 1 1452 W 29 36838 P 12/17-20 69 20 29 44 W 21 33 2 1 NW58 1116 W 28 26739 P 12/17-21 69 20 28 45 W 20 1 1067 W 26 24271 P 12/17-22 69 20 27 46 W 18 1 1017 W 24 21802 P 12/17-23 69 20 27 46 W 17 28 2 1 NW58 967 W 23 19334 P 12/18-00 69 20 26 47 W 17 1 841 W 22 15971 P 12/18-01 69 20 25 48 W 16 1 715 W 20 12609 P 12/18-02 69 20 24 49 W 16 25 2 1 NW54 589 W 18 9246 P 12/18-03 69 20 23 50 W 15 1 494 W 16 7282 P 12/18-04 69 20 22 52 W 14 1 399 W 15 5318 P 12/18-05 73 12 22 53 W 13 13 2 1 NW51 304 W 13 3353 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...BAKER WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...PAT OWENS REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20091215.JAMES.01/BOU