FNUS75 KBOU 151333 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR SHADOW MT VILLAGE...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 630 AM MST TUE DEC 15 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE POOR SMOKE DISPERSAL CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. ONCE THE STRONG SURFACE BASED TEMPERATURE INVERSION DISSIPATES SOMETIME BETWEEN 1100 AND 1200 HOURS...ANTICIPATE STEADY IMPROVEMENT IN MIXING CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SHOULD THE SHIELD OF HIGH CLOUDS NOW PASSING OVER NORTHERN UTAH AND IDAHO REACH THE PROPOSED BURN AREA EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...MIXING HEIGHTS MAY LOWER SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED. AS IT STANDS NOW...THE THICKER CLOUD COVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM FORECAST TO REACH THE AREA LATE ON THURSDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1100...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40%) UNTIL 1600...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). PATCHY FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS UNTIL 0800. MAX TEMPERATURE.....37-41. MIN HUMIDITY........28-33%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......VARIABLE 1-5 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN SOUTH- SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5-14 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN NORTHWEST 24-36 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2600-3600 FT AGL UNTIL 1400...THEN 3600-4600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1200...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1300...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1600...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 0600...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG IN LOW LYING AREAS AFTER 0400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....4-8. MAX HUMIDITY........65-75%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13-24 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN SOUTHWEST 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1800-2600 FT AGL...LOWERING TO 600-1100 FT AGL AFTER 2400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900...THEN POOR AFTER 2000. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 1700...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....36. MIN HUMIDITY........30%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5-16 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 16-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2600-3600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1700...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 0600. LOWS AROUND 7. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600. LOWS AROUND 5. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 4. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR SHADOW MT VILLAGE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 12/15-05 28 0 6 78 NE 2 2 2 1 NW43 341 SW 3 1078 P 12/15-06 28 0 5 78 NE 2 1 330 SW 5 1158 P 12/15-07 28 0 5 76 N 3 1 319 W 5 1238 P 12/15-08 45 0 6 74 N 3 3 2 1 W48 307 W 5 1318 P 12/15-09 45 0 12 66 NW 3 1 1040 W 9 13161 P 12/15-10 45 0 20 57 W 5 1 1773 W 13 25005 P 12/15-11 47 0 27 48 SW 5 5 2 1 W53 2505 W 17 36848 P 12/15-12 47 0 31 40 SW 6 1 3382 W 23 77332 G 12/15-13 47 0 34 34 SW 6 1 4259 W 29 117815 V 12/15-14 30 0 35 31 SW 6 6 2 1 W56 5136 W 36 158299 E 12/15-15 30 0 33 32 SW 6 1 4450 W 35 133583 V 12/15-16 30 0 30 36 W 6 1 3764 W 33 108866 V 12/15-17 42 0 27 41 W 6 6 2 1 NW52 3077 W 31 84149 G 12/15-18 42 0 23 44 W 6 1 2544 W 26 64565 G 12/15-19 42 0 20 47 W 6 1 1956 W 22 42746 F 12/15-20 23 0 17 48 W 5 5 2 1 W49 1368 W 17 20926 P 12/15-21 23 0 16 48 W 5 1 1227 W 15 16598 P 12/15-22 23 0 15 49 NW 3 1 1086 W 13 12269 P 12/15-23 47 0 14 49 NW 3 3 2 1 W44 944 W 9 7941 P 12/16-00 47 0 13 51 NW 2 1 825 W 8 5986 P 12/16-01 47 0 11 54 NW 2 1 707 W 6 4031 P 12/16-02 66 0 10 56 NW 2 2 2 1 W41 588 W 5 2076 P 12/16-03 66 0 8 61 N 2 1 531 SW 3 1479 P 12/16-04 66 0 6 65 N 2 1 474 SW 2 882 P 12/16-05 84 0 8 58 N 3 3 2 1 NW51 556 W 5 2426 P 12/16-06 84 0 7 59 NE 2 1 541 W 5 2007 P 12/16-07 84 0 7 61 NE 3 1 526 NW 3 1588 P 12/16-08 84 0 9 58 NE 3 3 2 1 NW24 510 NW 2 1169 P 12/16-09 84 0 16 50 N 3 1 1212 W 7 12900 P 12/16-10 84 0 22 47 W 5 1 1913 W 12 24631 P 12/16-11 66 0 28 42 SW 5 5 2 1 W12 2615 W 16 36362 P 12/16-12 66 0 32 36 SW 6 1 3114 W 17 46253 F 12/16-13 66 0 34 32 SW 7 1 3613 W 17 56143 F 12/16-14 66 0 35 30 W 7 7 2 1 W17 4112 W 18 66033 G 12/16-15 66 0 34 31 W 7 1 3525 W 17 54174 F 12/16-16 66 0 33 34 W 6 1 2937 W 16 42314 F 12/16-17 53 0 27 43 W 5 5 2 1 NW24 2350 W 15 30454 P 12/16-18 53 0 24 47 W 5 1 2015 W 13 23771 P 12/16-19 53 0 22 49 NW 3 1 1681 W 10 17089 P 12/16-20 53 0 21 51 NW 3 3 2 1 N22 1347 W 9 10406 P 12/16-21 53 0 20 51 NW 3 1 1196 W 8 8826 P 12/16-22 53 0 19 53 W 3 1 1045 W 8 7247 P 12/16-23 53 0 18 54 W 3 3 2 1 NW14 895 W 7 5667 P 12/17-00 53 0 16 57 SW 3 1 762 W 6 4333 P 12/17-01 53 0 15 61 SW 2 1 630 W 5 3000 P 12/17-02 53 0 14 63 SW 2 2 2 1 W25 498 SW 3 1667 P 12/17-03 53 0 13 67 S 2 1 446 SW 3 1334 P 12/17-04 53 0 12 71 S 2 1 394 SW 2 1002 P 12/17-05 60 10 10 75 SE 2 2 2 1 W40 343 S 2 669 P 12/17-06 60 10 10 75 S 2 1 360 SW 3 929 P 12/17-07 60 10 9 75 W 2 1 377 W 3 1190 P 12/17-08 60 10 12 68 W 2 2 2 1 W49 394 W 5 1450 P 12/17-09 60 10 18 55 W 3 1 1447 W 12 26349 P 12/17-10 60 10 25 48 W 6 1 2500 W 18 51247 F 12/17-11 60 10 30 42 SW 7 7 2 1 W51 3553 W 24 76146 G 12/17-12 60 10 34 36 W 8 1 4145 W 26 98059 G 12/17-13 60 10 36 33 W 9 1 4737 W 29 119973 V 12/17-14 60 10 37 32 W 9 9 2 1 NW37 5328 W 31 141886 V 12/17-15 60 10 36 33 W 9 1 4674 W 29 119500 V 12/17-16 60 10 34 35 W 9 1 4020 W 28 97113 G 12/17-17 65 20 27 47 W 9 9 2 1 NW56 3366 W 25 74727 G 12/17-18 65 20 24 44 W 9 1 2688 W 22 55947 F 12/17-19 65 20 21 47 W 9 1 2010 W 20 37166 P 12/17-20 65 20 20 49 W 9 9 2 1 NW61 1331 W 16 18385 P 12/17-21 65 20 19 49 W 9 1 1168 W 15 15084 P 12/17-22 65 20 17 49 W 8 1 1004 W 13 11783 P 12/17-23 65 20 16 50 W 8 8 2 1 NW59 841 W 12 8482 P 12/18-00 65 20 15 52 W 8 1 689 W 10 6643 P 12/18-01 65 20 13 55 W 8 1 537 W 9 4805 P 12/18-02 65 20 12 56 W 8 8 2 1 NW54 386 W 9 2967 P 12/18-03 65 20 10 58 W 8 1 336 W 8 2419 P 12/18-04 65 20 9 59 W 7 1 286 W 7 1872 P 12/18-05 77 7 8 60 W 6 6 2 1 NW48 236 W 7 1324 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...BAKER WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...SULPHUR RANGER DISTRICT ARAPAHO-ROOSEVELT NF REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20091215.SHADO.01/BOU