FNUS75 KBOU 211208 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR BAYOU GULCH...OTHER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 508 AM MST MON DEC 21 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS DEEPENING ON THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO THIS MORNING ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THESE WILL COMBINE TO BRING SOME GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE BURN AREA THIS MORNING...DECREASING IN SPEED IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND A FEW PERCENT DRIER THAN SUNDAYS CONDITIONS. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 0700...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-58. MIN HUMIDITY........16%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 6-12 MPH...STRONGEST BETWEEN 0900 AND 1100 WITH GUSTS UP TO 18 MPH POSSIBLE. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......800-1800 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 5600-6600 FT AGL UNTIL 1700...THEN 3600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1600...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1700...THEN FAIR. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....28. MAX HUMIDITY........50%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH 5-9 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1400-2400 FT AGL UNTIL 2000...THEN 200-400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 1700. MAX TEMPERATURE.....47. MIN HUMIDITY........32%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8-12 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN WEST UP TO 8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-2200 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .WEDNESDAY...SNOW LIKELY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AFTER 1800. MUCH COLDER. LOWS AROUND 11. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. .THURSDAY...AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW UNTIL 0600. SNOW LIKELY UNTIL 0600...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1800. LOWS AROUND 2. HIGHS AROUND 18. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. .CHRISTMAS DAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 3. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BAYOU GULCH. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 12/21-05 73 0 34 47 SW 5 7 5 1 W33 146 SW 12 1440 P 12/21-06 73 0 34 45 SW 6 1 183 SW 12 1863 P 12/21-07 56 0 35 43 SW 8 1 220 SW 12 2285 P 12/21-08 56 0 36 39 SW 10 12 4 1 NW32 257 SW 13 2708 P 12/21-09 35 0 42 31 SW 11 1 2335 W 16 46572 F 12/21-10 35 0 49 23 SW 11 1 4414 W 20 90436 G 12/21-11 35 0 54 19 SW 12 15 2 1 NW38 6492 NW 24 134300 V 12/21-12 30 0 56 18 SW 9 1 6844 NW 23 139540 V 12/21-13 30 0 57 17 SW 7 1 7196 NW 23 144780 V 12/21-14 30 0 57 17 SW 6 9 3 1 NW43 7548 NW 23 150020 E 12/21-15 30 0 55 19 SW 5 1 6229 NW 21 118577 V 12/21-16 30 0 52 23 SW 5 1 4909 W 20 87134 G 12/21-17 30 0 48 27 SW 3 3 4 1 NW39 3589 W 18 55692 F 12/21-18 30 0 44 33 SW 5 1 2499 W 15 37935 P 12/21-19 30 0 40 40 SW 7 1 1409 W 12 20178 P 12/21-20 30 0 37 47 SW 8 8 4 1 NW44 319 SW 9 2421 P 12/21-21 30 0 35 50 SW 8 1 286 SW 8 2129 P 12/21-22 30 0 34 50 SW 8 1 252 SW 8 1836 P 12/21-23 57 0 34 50 S 8 8 4 1 W17 219 S 8 1544 P 12/22-00 57 0 34 49 S 8 1 224 S 8 1669 P 12/22-01 57 0 34 47 S 8 1 229 S 9 1795 P 12/22-02 57 0 33 46 S 8 8 4 1 SW18 234 S 9 1921 P 12/22-03 57 0 33 46 S 8 1 214 S 9 1714 P 12/22-04 57 0 33 45 S 7 1 195 S 9 1508 P 12/22-05 69 0 32 48 S 8 8 4 1 SW21 175 SW 8 1301 P 12/22-06 69 0 32 48 S 7 1 165 S 8 1186 P 12/22-07 69 0 32 49 S 7 1 167 S 8 1204 P 12/22-08 69 0 33 47 S 7 7 5 1 SW17 169 S 8 1221 P 12/22-09 69 0 36 42 S 7 1 472 S 9 4225 P 12/22-10 69 0 41 36 S 7 1 774 S 10 7228 P 12/22-11 76 5 44 33 S 6 6 5 1 SW29 1076 S 12 10232 P 12/22-12 76 5 45 32 S 5 1 1497 S 9 11680 P 12/22-13 76 5 46 33 SW 5 1 1917 SW 8 13127 P 12/22-14 76 5 45 35 W 5 5 4 1 SW25 2338 SW 7 14575 P 12/22-15 76 5 42 40 W 5 1 1949 W 6 10192 P 12/22-16 76 5 38 48 NW 6 1 1559 NW 3 5810 P 12/22-17 100 50 34 57 N 6 6 3 1 SW15 1170 CALM 1427 P 12/22-18 100 50 31 64 N 6 1 923 N 2 1248 P 12/22-19 100 50 29 68 NW 5 1 676 NW 2 1069 P 12/22-20 100 50 28 71 NW 5 5 2 1 SW 9 429 W 2 890 P 12/22-21 100 70 27 72 NW 5 1 380 W 2 690 P 12/22-22 100 70 26 73 NW 5 1 331 CALM 491 P 12/22-23 100 70 25 74 W 5 5 2 1 SW10 283 CALM 291 P 12/23-00 100 70 24 76 NW 5 1 251 CALM 319 P 12/23-01 100 70 23 78 NW 6 1 220 NW 2 346 P 12/23-02 100 70 22 80 NW 7 7 2 1 S10 188 N 2 374 P 12/23-03 100 70 21 83 NW 7 1 183 N 3 494 P 12/23-04 100 70 20 86 N 8 1 177 N 5 614 P 12/23-05 100 70 19 89 N 9 9 2 1 SE 5 172 NW 5 734 P 12/23-06 100 70 19 91 N 10 1 168 N 6 865 P 12/23-07 100 70 18 94 N 10 1 165 N 7 996 P 12/23-08 100 70 19 94 N 12 16 2 1 E 6 161 N 8 1127 P 12/23-09 100 70 20 88 N 12 1 214 N 9 1687 P 12/23-10 100 70 23 80 N 13 1 267 N 9 2247 P 12/23-11 100 70 24 78 N 13 20 2 1 NE13 320 N 10 2806 P 12/23-12 100 70 24 78 N 13 1 514 N 12 5467 P 12/23-13 100 70 24 78 N 14 1 708 N 13 8127 P 12/23-14 100 70 24 77 N 14 21 2 1 N16 902 N 14 10787 P 12/23-15 100 70 22 81 N 15 1 671 N 14 7952 P 12/23-16 100 70 20 86 N 15 1 440 N 13 5117 P 12/23-17 100 60 17 93 N 15 23 2 1 N23 209 N 13 2282 P 12/23-18 100 60 15 97 N 15 1 12/23-19 100 60 13 100 N 15 1 12/23-20 100 60 12 100 N 16 23 1 12/23-21 100 60 10 100 N 16 1 12/23-22 100 60 10 99 N 15 1 12/23-23 97 60 9 97 N 15 23 1 12/24-00 97 60 8 94 N 14 1 12/24-01 97 60 8 91 N 14 1 12/24-02 97 60 7 88 N 13 18 1 12/24-03 97 60 6 87 NW 12 1 12/24-04 97 60 6 86 NW 10 1 12/24-05 85 30 6 86 NW 9 9 1 KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...DAVID REID REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20091221.BAYOU.01/BOU