FNUS75 KBOU 221237 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR JAMES CREEK...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 536 AM MST TUE DEC 22 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE TODAY AND THEN TURN MORE EASTWARD ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM TODAY...MOST LIKELY HOLDING OFF AT THE BURN SITE UNTIL 5 PM OR SLIGHTLY THEREAFTER. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION CAN THEN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND A LOWERING AND THICKENING CLOUD DECK TODAY WILL KEEP SMOKE DISPERSION POOR. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 1400. MAX TEMPERATURE.....34. MIN HUMIDITY........44%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST UP TO 4 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN NORTHEAST 5-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2600-3600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SNOW. MIN TEMPERATURE.....12. MAX HUMIDITY........100%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST 6-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......600-1400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SNOW. MAX TEMPERATURE.....21. MIN HUMIDITY........85%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH 7-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 12-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-2200 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY...SNOW LIKELY UNTIL 0600...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1800. LOWS AROUND 3. HIGHS AROUND 15. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .CHRISTMAS DAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 1. HIGHS AROUND 16. WEST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 4. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. WEST WINDS AROUND 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR JAMES CREEK. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 12/22-05 87 0 28 52 W 5 5 2 1 SW36 206 W 7 1175 P 12/22-06 87 0 28 54 W 2 1 237 W 6 1234 P 12/22-07 87 0 28 55 CALM 1 268 W 6 1293 P 12/22-08 87 0 28 57 CALM 1 2 1 W30 299 W 6 1352 P 12/22-09 87 0 29 56 N 3 1 1282 W 7 10904 P 12/22-10 87 0 31 54 NE 5 1 2265 SW 9 20457 P 12/22-11 91 9 32 53 NE 6 6 2 1 SW24 3247 SW 10 30010 P 12/22-12 91 9 33 54 E 6 1 3774 SW 10 34493 P 12/22-13 91 9 33 55 SE 6 1 4300 SW 10 38977 P 12/22-14 94 22 33 58 SE 6 6 2 1 SW16 4826 SW 10 43461 F 12/22-15 94 22 32 62 SE 6 1 3847 SW 8 30171 P 12/22-16 94 22 30 69 SE 5 1 2869 S 5 16880 P 12/22-17 100 79 28 76 SE 5 5 2 1 W15 1891 S 2 3590 P 12/22-18 100 79 26 83 SE 5 1 1485 SE 3 3362 P 12/22-19 100 79 25 89 SE 6 1 1079 E 5 3135 P 12/22-20 100 90 23 93 E 7 7 2 1 W 3 674 E 5 2907 P 12/22-21 100 90 21 97 E 8 1 653 E 6 3182 P 12/22-22 100 90 20 100 E 8 1 633 E 6 3457 P 12/22-23 100 90 19 100 E 8 8 2 1 E 7 613 E 7 3732 P 12/23-00 100 90 18 100 E 8 1 595 NE 7 3820 P 12/23-01 100 90 17 100 NE 7 1 576 NE 8 3908 P 12/23-02 100 90 16 100 NE 7 7 2 1 E10 557 NE 8 3996 P 12/23-03 100 90 16 100 NE 7 1 550 NE 9 4134 P 12/23-04 100 90 16 96 N 8 1 542 NE 9 4272 P 12/23-05 100 80 14 97 N 8 8 2 1 E10 534 NE 9 4410 P 12/23-06 100 80 13 100 N 5 1 508 NE 10 4353 P 12/23-07 100 80 12 100 N 7 1 526 NE 10 4750 P 12/23-08 100 80 13 100 N 8 8 2 1 NE12 544 NE 10 5147 P 12/23-09 100 80 15 100 N 9 1 1104 NE 13 12928 P 12/23-10 100 80 17 100 N 8 1 1664 NE 14 20709 P 12/23-11 100 80 19 98 N 9 9 2 1 NE10 2224 NE 15 28490 P 12/23-12 100 80 20 93 N 9 1 2356 NE 15 29445 P 12/23-13 100 80 21 88 N 10 1 2488 N 14 30399 P 12/23-14 100 80 21 86 N 10 10 2 1 NE12 2620 N 14 31354 P 12/23-15 100 80 20 85 N 10 1 2002 N 14 23713 P 12/23-16 100 80 19 85 N 10 1 1383 N 13 16072 P 12/23-17 100 65 16 95 N 10 10 2 1 NE10 764 N 13 8431 P 12/23-18 100 65 14 96 N 10 1 624 N 12 6659 P 12/23-19 100 65 13 96 N 10 1 483 N 12 4886 P 12/23-20 100 65 12 95 NW 10 10 2 1 N10 343 N 10 3113 P 12/23-21 100 65 11 95 NW 9 1 379 NW 9 3049 P 12/23-22 100 65 10 93 NW 9 1 416 NW 8 2985 P 12/23-23 91 65 10 94 W 9 9 2 1 NE 9 453 NW 7 2921 P 12/24-00 91 65 9 94 W 9 1 458 NW 7 2964 P 12/24-01 91 65 8 93 W 9 1 464 NW 7 3006 P 12/24-02 91 65 8 93 NW 9 9 2 1 NE 5 469 NW 7 3048 P 12/24-03 91 65 7 93 NW 10 1 515 NW 7 3060 P 12/24-04 91 65 6 93 N 10 1 561 NW 7 3072 P 12/24-05 86 28 6 93 N 10 10 2 1 NW 2 606 N 6 3084 P 12/24-06 86 28 6 93 N 10 1 685 N 7 3985 P 12/24-07 86 28 5 92 N 10 1 765 N 7 4885 P 12/24-08 86 28 6 94 N 10 10 2 1 NW 3 844 N 8 5786 P 12/24-09 86 28 8 97 N 10 1 1320 NW 9 12763 P 12/24-10 86 28 10 100 N 9 1 1796 NW 12 19739 P 12/24-11 73 28 12 88 N 9 9 2 1 W 6 2272 NW 14 26716 P 12/24-12 73 28 14 82 N 9 1 2627 NW 15 33674 P 12/24-13 73 28 14 77 NW 9 1 2982 NW 15 40632 F 12/24-14 73 28 15 75 NW 9 9 2 1 W 9 3337 NW 16 47590 F 12/24-15 73 28 14 75 NW 10 1 3068 NW 16 43893 F 12/24-16 73 28 13 75 W 10 1 2798 NW 16 40196 F 12/24-17 67 5 10 84 W 10 10 2 1 W 7 2528 NW 16 36499 P 12/24-18 67 5 9 87 W 10 1 2277 NW 17 33794 P 12/24-19 67 5 7 88 W 12 1 2027 NW 17 31088 P 12/24-20 67 5 7 87 W 12 12 2 1 W 3 1777 NW 18 28382 P 12/24-21 67 5 6 86 W 12 1 1716 NW 17 26270 P 12/24-22 67 5 5 84 W 13 1 1656 W 17 24158 P 12/24-23 67 5 5 82 W 13 13 2 1 N 2 1595 W 16 22046 P 12/25-00 67 5 4 84 W 13 1 1422 W 16 19649 P 12/25-01 67 5 3 87 W 13 1 1248 W 16 17252 P 12/25-02 67 5 2 89 W 13 13 2 1 N 5 1075 W 16 14855 P 12/25-03 67 5 2 92 W 13 1 991 W 16 13896 P 12/25-04 67 5 1 95 W 13 1 907 W 16 12937 P 12/25-05 60 0 1 98 W 13 13 2 1 N12 823 W 17 11979 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...ED LEBLANC REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20091222.JAMES.01/BOU