FNUS72 KJAX 221038
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR HOG VALLEY...US FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
538 AM EST TUE DEC 22 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EST ON DECEMBER 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW HUMIDITIES TO DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT OVER THE
INLAND AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA FOR DURATIONS OF 4 TO 6 HOURS.
A RED FLAG HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN
LOW DISPERSION TODAY. DISPERSION VALUES INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS TRANSPORT
WINDS INCREASE.

MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST AND NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE FRONT WILL
BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. DRIER AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED NEXT MONDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW
15 MPH.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). AREAS OF FROST EARLY IN
                    THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURE.........50 AT IGNITION...MAX 64.
RH..................51 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 30 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTH AT 3 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800 FT AGL AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO 2600-2800 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHEAST 5 TO 8 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....16.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.

TIME (EST)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).........12     12     11     6
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............50     59     63     63
RH..............51     36     32     33
20 FT WIND......N 3    N 5    NE 5   NE 5
20 FT WIND GUST.5
MIX HGT (FT)....1800   1800   2800   2600
TRANSPORT WIND..NE 7   NE 7   E 5    NE 7
CHC OF PCPN (%).0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (0-10 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 40.
RH..................MAX 99 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900-2600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-600 FT AGL IN
                    THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHEAST 5 TO 8 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....2.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........6      1      6      6      8      11
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............55     50     47     45     44     43
RH..............50     65     72     76     81     85
20 FT WIND......NE 3   NE 3   NE 3   NE 3   NE 3   NE 3
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      5      5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)....2600   900    600    600    300    600
TRANSPORT WIND..NE 7   NE 8   NE 6   NE 6   NE 5   NE 8
CHC OF PCPN (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 71.
RH..................MIN 45 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 9 MPH EARLY IN
                    THE MORNING.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600-2200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2500-3500 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........EAST 8 TO 15 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....48.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.

$$
FORECASTER...PETERSON
REQUESTED BY...JOHN MASTERS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20091222.HOGVA.01/JAX