FNUS74 KEPZ 141631
FWSEPZ

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR MOGOLLON PILES...GNF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
931 AM MST THU JAN 14 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0925 MST ON JANUARY 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
CHIHUAHUA THIS AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO FROM THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.  TERRAIN ORIENTATION MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 15 MPH FOR A BRIEF TIME LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA...
BUT COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...BUT THESE ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE SOUTH OF THE AREA...
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW.

DRIER CONDITIONS WITH LIGHTER WINDS TOMORROW...AND POST-FRONTAL
INVERSION...MEANING DECREASING VENT RATES.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). WIDELY SCATTERED
                    RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................30 PERCENT.
                    TEMPERATURE.........32 AT IGNITION...MAX 47.
                    MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 30 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
VENT RATE...........107800 KNOT-FT (VERY GOOD) AT PEAK HEATING.


.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT).
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....24.
MAX HUMIDITY........85 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST 10 TO 12 MPH.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....46.
MIN HUMIDITY........42 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST 7 TO 10 MPH.
VENT RATE...........72000 KNOT-FT (GOOD) AT PEAK HEATING.

$$
FORECASTER...HARDIMAN
REQUESTED BY...SHELLI COMAN
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100114.MOGOL.01/EPZ