FNUS75 KBOU 190122 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR FRISCO WUI...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 622 PM MST MON JAN 18 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE STATE TUESDAY WITH LIFT AHEAD OF IT IN THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR GOOD DISPERSAL. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY...HOWEVER SNOW WILL MOST LIKELY STAY TO SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPE AND THEREFORE BE SHADOWED AT THE BURN SITE. MAINLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WESTERLIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MIXES SOME OF THE WINDS ALOFT DOWN. WEDNESDAY SMOKE DISPERSAL WILL WORSEN AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER COLORADO. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0500...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW. MIN TEMPERATURE.....13. MAX HUMIDITY........86%. WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. MAX TEMPERATURE.....32. MIN HUMIDITY........49%. WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-8 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN WEST 8-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2200-3200 FT AGL UNTIL 1300...THEN 4600-5600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1200...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1300...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1400...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1700...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TUESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0500...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. MIN TEMPERATURE.....11. MAX HUMIDITY........88%. WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 16-24 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN SOUTHWEST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3200-4200 FT AGL UNTIL 2200. 600-800 FT AGL AFTER 0200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 2200. POOR AFTER 2300. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. MAX TEMPERATURE.....28. MIN HUMIDITY........49%. WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3000-4000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1200...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1600...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY...CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 8. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .FRIDAY...CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 9. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER. LOWS AROUND 8. HIGHS AROUND 30. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1800...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 3. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR FRISCO WUI. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 01/18-18 71 20 23 60 SW 6 1 1868 SW 14 23436 P 01/18-19 71 20 21 63 S 6 1 1386 SW 12 15851 P 01/18-20 71 20 20 66 S 5 5 2 1 W35 904 SW 10 8266 P 01/18-21 71 20 19 69 S 5 1 756 SW 10 6798 P 01/18-22 71 20 18 72 S 5 1 609 SW 10 5330 P 01/18-23 89 20 17 75 S 6 6 2 1 W32 461 SW 9 3861 P 01/19-00 89 20 16 77 S 6 1 398 SW 9 3268 P 01/19-01 89 20 15 79 S 6 1 334 SW 9 2676 P 01/19-02 89 20 15 81 S 6 6 2 1 SW30 271 SW 9 2083 P 01/19-03 89 20 14 83 S 6 1 259 SW 9 1954 P 01/19-04 89 20 14 84 S 6 1 246 SW 8 1825 P 01/19-05 87 30 14 85 S 5 5 2 1 SW28 234 SW 8 1697 P 01/19-06 87 30 14 86 S 5 1 272 SW 8 1970 P 01/19-07 87 30 15 85 S 6 1 310 SW 8 2243 P 01/19-08 87 30 18 77 S 5 5 2 1 SW28 348 SW 8 2517 P 01/19-09 87 30 21 70 S 5 1 1203 SW 10 13597 P 01/19-10 87 30 23 64 S 3 1 2058 SW 13 24678 P 01/19-11 87 40 26 58 S 3 3 2 1 SW29 2913 SW 14 35758 P 01/19-12 87 40 28 53 S 3 1 3892 SW 16 58131 F 01/19-13 87 40 30 50 W 6 1 4871 W 18 80503 G 01/19-14 87 40 30 49 W 7 7 2 1 SW26 5849 W 21 102876 V 01/19-15 87 40 30 49 W 7 1 5855 W 21 105366 V 01/19-16 87 40 28 52 W 8 1 5861 W 21 107855 V 01/19-17 57 40 25 60 W 8 8 2 1 SW37 4476 W 21 80942 G 01/19-18 57 40 23 67 W 6 1 4254 W 22 80680 G 01/19-19 57 40 21 74 SW 7 1 4033 W 23 80418 G 01/19-20 57 40 20 79 SW 7 7 2 1 SW22 3811 W 24 80156 G 01/19-21 57 40 18 83 SW 7 1 3178 W 22 62160 G 01/19-22 57 40 16 85 W 7 1 2544 W 18 44164 F 01/19-23 58 30 15 86 W 7 7 3 1 W37 1911 W 16 26168 P 01/20-00 58 30 14 87 SW 7 1 1563 W 13 18864 P 01/20-01 58 30 13 88 SW 7 1 1215 W 9 11561 P 01/20-02 58 30 13 88 SW 7 7 4 1 W37 867 W 6 4257 P 01/20-03 58 30 12 87 S 7 1 799 SW 5 3555 P 01/20-04 58 30 12 85 S 6 1 730 SW 5 2853 P 01/20-05 77 25 12 83 S 5 5 3 1 W15 662 SW 3 2150 P 01/20-06 77 25 12 80 S 3 1 672 S 5 2784 P 01/20-07 77 25 13 76 SE 3 1 682 S 6 3418 P 01/20-08 77 25 15 69 SE 3 3 3 1 S20 693 SE 7 4052 P 01/20-09 77 25 18 64 SE 5 1 1304 SE 9 14166 P 01/20-10 77 25 20 60 SE 6 1 1915 S 13 24281 P 01/20-11 77 25 23 57 SE 7 7 2 1 S25 2526 S 16 34395 P 01/20-12 77 25 25 53 SE 7 1 3149 S 16 42600 F 01/20-13 77 25 26 50 SE 7 1 3773 S 15 50804 F 01/20-14 77 25 27 49 SE 7 7 2 1 S29 4396 S 15 59008 F 01/20-15 77 25 26 50 SE 5 1 3842 S 12 43395 F 01/20-16 77 25 25 53 SE 3 1 3289 SW 8 27782 P 01/20-17 80 20 21 71 SE 2 2 2 1 SW15 2735 SW 5 12168 P 01/20-18 80 20 19 75 SE 3 1 2008 SW 5 8653 P 01/20-19 80 20 18 80 SE 5 1 1281 S 3 5137 P 01/20-20 80 20 16 83 S 6 6 2 1 SW12 554 S 3 1622 P 01/20-21 80 20 15 89 S 6 1 451 S 5 1491 P 01/20-22 80 20 13 95 S 6 1 347 S 5 1360 P 01/20-23 80 20 12 100 S 6 6 2 1 W15 244 SW 6 1229 P 01/21-00 80 20 11 100 S 6 1 251 SW 6 1284 P 01/21-01 80 20 10 100 S 5 1 259 SW 6 1339 P 01/21-02 80 20 10 100 S 5 5 2 1 SW16 266 SW 6 1393 P 01/21-03 80 20 9 100 S 5 1 281 SW 6 1425 P 01/21-04 80 20 9 100 S 5 1 297 SW 6 1456 P 01/21-05 82 20 9 100 S 5 5 2 1 SW20 312 SW 6 1487 P 01/21-06 82 20 10 100 W 3 1 511 SW 7 3167 P 01/21-07 82 20 11 100 SW 5 1 711 SW 7 4846 P 01/21-08 82 20 15 86 S 5 5 2 1 W28 910 SW 8 6525 P 01/21-09 82 20 19 72 SW 6 1 2167 SW 12 28451 P 01/21-10 82 20 23 63 SW 7 1 3425 W 15 50377 F 01/21-11 82 20 27 54 W 8 8 2 1 W35 4682 W 17 72304 G 01/21-12 82 20 30 47 W 8 1 4871 W 21 86321 G 01/21-13 82 20 33 42 W 9 1 5060 W 23 100338 V 01/21-14 82 20 34 41 W 9 10 2 1 SW29 5248 W 25 114355 V 01/21-15 82 20 33 43 W 8 1 5037 SW 24 106169 V 01/21-16 82 20 31 48 SW 7 1 4825 SW 23 97983 G 01/21-17 82 25 27 55 SW 6 6 2 1 S33 4614 SW 22 89796 G KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...ROB MACDONALD REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100119.FRISC.01/BOU