FNUS75 KGJT 182330
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR WEST VAIL PILES...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
430 PM MST MON JAN 18 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MST ON JANUARY 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW...WITH A SERIES OF PASSING
DISTURBANCES...WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. ONE
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASED INSTABILITY...AND A ROUND OF SNOW
TO THE BURN SITE ON TUESDAY. A MORE STABLE...AND DRIER AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TRACKS FROM WEST TO
EAST SOUTH OF THE COLORADO BORDER. BETTER INSTABILITY AND MIXING
ARE EXPECTED LATER IN THE WORK WEEK.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (80-90%). SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....29-34 F.
WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 0-5 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-13 MPH WITH GUSTS 18-22 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4000 FT AGL IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 10 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 25 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (80-90%). SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY
                    BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....12-17 F.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 12 MPH SHIFTING TO DOWNSLOPE/
                    DOWNVALLEY 0-5 MPH AFTER 2100.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 2000...THEN POOR (800 KNOT-FT).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200 FT AGL AFTER
                    2000.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (80-90%). ISOLATED SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....26-31 F.
WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 0-5 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    SOUTHWEST WINDS 3-8 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 12 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (INCREASING TO 23500 KNOT-FT IN THE AFTERNOON).
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 3000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...ROB MACDONALD
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100119.WESTV.01/GJT