FNUS75 KBOU 200219 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR JAMES CREEK RFB 9...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 718 PM MST TUE JAN 19 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER TO THE BURN SITE BY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS ALOFT AND LIMITED HEATING WILL KEEP SMOKE DISPERSION IN THE POOR CATEGORY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD AID SMOKE DISPERSION BY THEN. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 1100. MAX TEMPERATURE.....33-35. MIN HUMIDITY........40%. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST 6-12 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN NORTHWEST UNTIL 1500...THEN NORTHEAST 4-5 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4400-5400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY UNTIL 2400...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 2300. MIN TEMPERATURE.....21. MAX HUMIDITY........74%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST 7-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3400-4400 FT AGL UNTIL 2100...THEN 1200-2200 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%) UNTIL 0900...THEN CLOUDY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....37. MIN HUMIDITY........34%. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST 6-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2600-3600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 0600 UNTIL 1800... THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1800...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. .SUNDAY...CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1800...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 15. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. WEST WINDS AROUND 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 0600. LOWS AROUND 15. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR JAMES CREEK RFB 9. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 01/20-05 31 0 17 60 W 18 31 3 1 W18 576 W 14 6942 P 01/20-06 59 0 17 61 W 17 1 626 W 12 6401 P 01/20-07 59 0 17 61 W 16 1 675 W 10 5860 P 01/20-08 59 0 20 57 W 14 23 3 1 SW17 724 W 8 5320 P 01/20-09 59 0 23 52 W 9 1 1569 SW 8 9981 P 01/20-10 59 0 25 49 SW 5 1 2415 S 7 14643 P 01/20-11 76 10 28 45 CALM 1 3 1 S15 3260 S 7 19304 P 01/20-12 76 10 30 43 CALM 1 4057 S 6 16542 P 01/20-13 76 10 32 41 N 2 1 4853 SW 3 13781 P 01/20-14 76 10 32 40 N 3 3 2 1 E12 5649 SW 2 11019 P 01/20-15 76 10 32 41 NE 3 1 5481 W 5 19234 P 01/20-16 76 10 31 43 NE 3 1 5313 NW 6 27450 P 01/20-17 76 10 30 46 NE 3 3 2 1 NE 7 5144 N 8 35665 P 01/20-18 97 10 28 50 W 7 1 4511 NW 8 33058 P 01/20-19 97 10 27 51 W 7 1 3877 NW 9 30452 P 01/20-20 97 10 26 52 W 8 8 2 1 W 2 3243 NW 10 27845 P 01/20-21 97 10 25 55 W 9 1 2709 NW 10 24608 P 01/20-22 97 10 24 58 W 12 1 2175 W 12 21372 P 01/20-23 43 0 24 61 W 13 13 2 1 W 5 1641 W 13 18135 P 01/21-00 43 0 23 65 W 12 1 1432 W 13 15403 P 01/21-01 43 0 22 69 W 10 1 1223 W 12 12671 P 01/21-02 43 0 22 72 W 10 10 2 1 W17 1013 W 12 9939 P 01/21-03 43 0 22 74 W 10 1 993 W 12 9654 P 01/21-04 43 0 22 74 W 10 1 973 W 12 9368 P 01/21-05 43 0 22 73 W 10 10 2 1 W30 953 W 12 9082 P 01/21-06 43 0 22 71 W 10 1 992 W 10 8936 P 01/21-07 43 0 23 66 W 10 1 1031 W 10 8790 P 01/21-08 97 0 25 59 W 10 10 2 1 W32 1070 W 9 8644 P 01/21-09 97 0 28 52 W 9 1 1618 SW 9 12235 P 01/21-10 97 0 30 47 W 7 1 2166 SW 8 15826 P 01/21-11 97 0 33 43 W 6 6 2 1 SW35 2713 SW 8 19418 P 01/21-12 97 0 34 39 W 5 1 3184 SW 9 25919 P 01/21-13 97 0 36 35 W 3 1 3655 SW 10 32421 P 01/21-14 97 0 36 34 S 2 2 2 1 SW38 4127 SW 10 38923 P 01/21-15 97 0 36 35 S 2 1 3564 SW 10 32453 P 01/21-16 97 0 35 36 SW 3 1 3001 SW 9 25984 P 01/21-17 97 0 33 40 SW 3 3 3 1 SW40 2439 SW 9 19514 P 01/21-18 97 0 32 42 SW 5 1 1933 SW 9 15194 P 01/21-19 97 0 31 44 W 5 1 1426 SW 8 10873 P 01/21-20 97 0 30 45 W 5 5 3 1 SW41 920 SW 8 6553 P 01/21-21 74 0 29 49 SW 5 1 755 SW 8 5287 P 01/21-22 74 0 28 53 SW 5 1 591 SW 8 4021 P 01/21-23 74 0 27 57 SW 3 3 3 1 SW44 427 SW 7 2755 P 01/22-00 74 0 26 56 SW 5 1 391 SW 7 2526 P 01/22-01 74 0 26 53 SW 6 1 355 SW 7 2296 P 01/22-02 74 0 25 52 SW 6 6 3 1 SW49 319 SW 7 2067 P 01/22-03 74 0 25 55 W 7 1 318 SW 8 2181 P 01/22-04 74 0 25 60 SW 8 1 316 SW 8 2295 P 01/22-05 77 40 25 63 SW 8 8 2 1 SW54 314 SW 9 2409 P 01/22-06 77 40 25 61 SW 8 1 459 SW 9 3624 P 01/22-07 77 40 26 56 SW 7 1 603 S 9 4839 P 01/22-08 77 40 29 49 SW 6 6 3 1 SW52 747 S 9 6054 P 01/22-09 77 40 32 45 S 5 1 1781 S 13 25023 P 01/22-10 77 40 35 43 S 3 1 2816 SW 16 43991 F 01/22-11 77 40 38 39 S 2 2 3 1 S51 3850 SW 18 62959 G 01/22-12 77 40 40 33 SW 5 1 4759 SW 21 86877 G 01/22-13 77 40 42 28 SW 6 1 5668 SW 22 110794 V 01/22-14 77 40 43 26 SW 7 7 3 1 S33 6578 SW 23 134712 V 01/22-15 77 40 42 28 SW 7 1 6557 W 22 126702 V 01/22-16 77 40 41 33 SW 7 1 6536 W 21 118692 V 01/22-17 87 40 38 42 SW 7 7 2 1 S16 6515 W 20 110682 V KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...ED LEBLANC REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100120.JAMES.01/BOU