FNUS72 KTAE 201148
FWSTAE

SPOT FORECAST FOR SMR BURN UNITS 312   305...US FISH & WILDLIFE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
648 AM EST WED JAN 20 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EST ON JANUARY 20.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT (850) 942-8835

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST AND WEAKEN TODAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM ORGANIZES ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. LIGHT EAST WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. THE FLOW OFF THE WATER WILL BRING INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HELP KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WELL
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. AREA OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BURN OFF WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE IN NATURE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL TAPER OFF LATER THURSDAY WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAINING WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL VALUES.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64.
MIN HUMIDITY........70 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT EAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH
                    BY LATE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 9 TO 11 MPH
                    IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......AROUND 500 FT AGL EARLY THIS MORNING...RISING
                    TO AROUND 2000 FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING
                    SOUTHEAST 7 TO 9 MPH BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
                    INCREASING TO AROUND 12 MPH LATE.
DISPERSION INDEX....30 TO 35.

TIME (EST)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM   8 PM
SKY (%).........PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
WEATHER COV.....                                   CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR
TEMP............55     61     64     64     63     59
RH..............85     75     71     74     76     86
20 FT WIND......SE 5   SE 8   S 9    SE 10  SE 10  SE 12
20 FT WIND GUST.10     10     14     15     15     15

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56.
MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 INCREASING TO AROUND
                    15 MPH AND GUSTY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CWR.................50 PERCENT THROUGH MID EVENING...THEN INCREASING
                    TO 70 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......AROUND 1500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 20 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....15 TO 20.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-100 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN A
                    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65.
MIN HUMIDITY........85 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY.
CWR.................80 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 20 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    20 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....45 TO 50.

$$
FORECASTER...MROCZKA
REQUESTED BY...GREG TITUS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100120.SMRBU.01/TAE