FNUS75 KBOU 220412 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR RYAN GULCH...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 910 PM MST THU JAN 21 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A LOT OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE WRUNG OUT OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO. AS A RESULT...THERE SHOULD BE JUST A FEW PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL FRIDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT...SO GOOD TO VERY GOOD SMOKE DISPERSION IS EXPECTED. A BETTER CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL CAN BE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. MAX TEMPERATURE.....34. MIN HUMIDITY........54%. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST 10-20 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20-28 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......800-1800 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 5200-6200 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FRIDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. MIN TEMPERATURE.....11. MAX HUMIDITY........98%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST 5-11 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 17-28 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4000-5000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. MAX TEMPERATURE.....31. MIN HUMIDITY........43%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST 5-9 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 25-36 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6000-7000 FT AGL UNTIL 1300...THEN 9400-10400 FT AGL UNTIL 1600...THEN 6600-7600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SUNDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 9. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1800. LOWS AROUND 7. HIGHS AROUND 30. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 0600. LOWS AROUND 8. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1800. LOWS AROUND 9. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR RYAN GULCH. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 01/22-05 100 40 21 92 S 12 23 2 1 SW37 311 S 18 5041 P 01/22-06 100 40 21 94 S 12 1 395 S 20 6746 P 01/22-07 100 40 21 94 S 12 1 478 SW 20 8451 P 01/22-08 100 40 21 93 SW 13 23 2 1 SW48 561 SW 21 10156 P 01/22-09 100 40 23 87 SW 14 1 2189 SW 23 50946 F 01/22-10 100 40 27 71 SW 14 1 3817 SW 25 91736 G 01/22-11 100 40 31 62 SW 14 24 2 1 SW61 5445 SW 28 132527 V 01/22-12 100 40 32 58 SW 15 1 5737 SW 28 138773 V 01/22-13 100 40 34 55 W 15 1 6028 SW 28 145020 V 01/22-14 100 40 34 54 W 16 26 2 1 W43 6320 SW 28 151267 E 01/22-15 100 40 34 54 W 16 1 5982 SW 26 138738 V 01/22-16 100 40 32 57 W 14 1 5644 SW 25 126208 V 01/22-17 100 49 27 70 W 12 17 2 1 W37 5305 SW 24 113679 V 01/22-18 100 49 24 76 W 10 1 5219 W 24 110159 V 01/22-19 100 49 22 83 W 9 1 5163 W 23 103957 V 01/22-20 100 49 20 86 W 8 8 2 1 W36 5107 W 22 97755 G 01/22-21 100 49 18 88 W 7 1 4824 W 21 86756 G 01/22-22 100 49 17 88 SW 6 1 4541 W 20 75757 G 01/22-23 100 46 15 88 SW 5 5 2 1 W33 4258 W 17 64758 G 01/23-00 100 46 14 89 SW 5 1 4009 W 18 64432 G 01/23-01 100 46 13 90 SW 5 1 3760 W 20 64106 G 01/23-02 100 46 13 92 W 5 5 2 1 W39 3511 W 21 63780 G 01/23-03 100 46 12 95 W 5 1 3977 W 23 82279 G 01/23-04 100 46 12 98 W 6 1 4442 W 25 100778 V 01/23-05 97 40 12 98 W 6 6 2 1 W41 4907 W 28 119277 V 01/23-06 97 40 12 93 W 6 1 4977 W 28 120829 V 01/23-07 97 40 13 85 W 6 1 5046 W 28 122382 V 01/23-08 97 40 16 73 W 6 6 2 1 W38 5116 W 28 123934 V 01/23-09 97 40 19 63 W 7 1 5477 W 29 134594 V 01/23-10 97 40 22 58 W 7 1 5839 W 29 145253 V 01/23-11 100 35 25 52 W 7 7 2 1 NW33 6201 W 29 155913 E 01/23-12 100 35 28 47 W 7 1 7634 NW 30 198328 E 01/23-13 100 35 29 44 W 7 1 9067 NW 30 240744 E 01/23-14 100 35 30 43 W 7 7 2 1 NW31 10500 NW 31 283159 E 01/23-15 100 35 29 43 W 7 1 9132 NW 32 253107 E 01/23-16 100 35 28 45 W 7 1 7763 NW 33 223056 E 01/23-17 100 40 25 50 W 7 7 2 1 N25 6395 NW 35 193004 E 01/23-18 100 40 22 54 W 7 1 6034 NW 35 178914 E 01/23-19 100 40 20 57 W 7 1 5673 NW 33 164824 E 01/23-20 100 40 19 61 W 8 8 2 1 N20 5311 NW 32 150734 E 01/23-21 100 40 17 65 W 8 1 5246 NW 33 151622 E 01/23-22 100 40 15 69 W 8 1 5180 NW 33 152509 E 01/23-23 100 52 14 73 W 8 8 2 1 NW23 5115 NW 35 153397 E 01/24-00 100 52 13 71 W 8 1 5080 NW 35 153935 E 01/24-01 100 52 12 70 W 8 1 5046 NW 36 154474 E 01/24-02 100 52 12 70 W 9 9 2 1 NW24 5012 NW 36 155012 E 01/24-03 100 52 11 69 W 9 1 5015 NW 37 160518 E 01/24-04 100 52 11 69 W 9 1 5019 NW 38 166023 E 01/24-05 100 52 11 69 W 9 9 2 1 NW37 5023 NW 39 171529 E 01/24-06 100 52 11 69 NW 9 1 5074 NW 39 173753 E 01/24-07 100 52 11 71 NW 9 1 5125 NW 39 175978 E 01/24-08 100 52 14 66 NW 9 9 2 1 N40 5176 NW 39 178202 E 01/24-09 100 52 16 61 NW 9 1 5396 NW 39 185192 E 01/24-10 100 52 18 58 NW 9 1 5617 NW 39 192181 E 01/24-11 99 52 21 53 NW 9 9 2 1 N35 5838 NW 39 199170 E 01/24-12 99 52 22 50 NW 9 1 6002 NW 39 205239 E 01/24-13 99 52 24 48 NW 9 1 6166 NW 39 211308 E 01/24-14 99 52 24 48 NW 9 9 2 1 N32 6330 NW 39 217377 E 01/24-15 99 52 24 49 NW 9 1 5892 NW 37 192728 E 01/24-16 99 52 22 51 NW 8 1 5453 NW 36 168078 E 01/24-17 82 32 19 58 NW 8 8 2 1 N36 5015 NW 33 143428 V KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...NICK COLLARD REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100122.RYANG.01/BOU