FNUS75 KBOU 230451 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR RYAN GULCH...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 940 PM MST FRI JAN 22 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT SMOKE DISPERSION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TURNING COLDER AS WELL WITH PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....30. MIN HUMIDITY........47%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST 8-16 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 20-28 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6000-7000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1300...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1600...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .SATURDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....9. MAX HUMIDITY........80%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST 8-14 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 28-36 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4400-5400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY UNTIL 1100...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW. MAX TEMPERATURE.....23. MIN HUMIDITY........52%. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST 9-19 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 36-40 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5400-6400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 6. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 9. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1800...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 10. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 7. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR RYAN GULCH. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 01/23-05 97 60 15 90 W 8 8 2 1 W22 4947 NW 20 83332 G 01/23-06 97 60 14 93 W 8 1 4930 W 20 84261 G 01/23-07 97 60 14 94 W 8 1 4912 W 20 85190 G 01/23-08 97 60 14 90 W 8 8 2 1 W25 4895 W 21 86119 G 01/23-09 97 60 17 78 W 9 1 5242 W 22 99056 G 01/23-10 97 60 21 63 W 12 1 5589 W 23 111994 V 01/23-11 97 60 25 53 W 13 20 2 1 W20 5935 W 24 124931 V 01/23-12 97 60 26 49 W 14 1 6605 W 25 147335 V 01/23-13 97 60 27 47 W 14 1 7274 W 26 169740 E 01/23-14 97 60 27 48 W 14 21 2 1 NW25 7943 NW 28 192144 E 01/23-15 97 60 25 50 W 13 1 7090 NW 28 170958 E 01/23-16 97 60 23 54 W 10 1 6236 NW 28 149772 V 01/23-17 99 63 21 58 W 8 8 2 1 NW24 5383 NW 28 128586 V 01/23-18 99 63 19 57 W 6 1 5464 W 30 140909 V 01/23-19 99 63 17 61 W 10 1 5370 NW 29 135196 V 01/23-20 99 63 16 64 W 10 10 2 1 NW39 5276 NW 29 129484 V 01/23-21 99 63 16 68 W 10 1 5210 NW 30 134526 V 01/23-22 99 63 15 71 W 10 1 5145 NW 31 139568 V 01/23-23 100 73 13 73 W 10 10 2 1 NW39 5079 NW 32 144610 V 01/24-00 100 73 12 75 W 10 1 4882 NW 32 138023 V 01/24-01 100 73 11 78 W 10 1 4685 NW 32 131437 V 01/24-02 100 73 11 79 W 12 12 2 1 NW39 4487 NW 32 124850 V 01/24-03 100 73 10 80 W 12 1 4493 NW 33 129723 V 01/24-04 100 73 10 80 W 12 1 4498 NW 35 134597 V 01/24-05 100 73 10 79 W 12 12 2 1 NW49 4503 NW 36 139470 V 01/24-06 100 73 10 77 W 12 1 4675 NW 36 146460 V 01/24-07 100 73 11 74 W 12 1 4846 NW 37 153451 E 01/24-08 100 73 13 68 W 12 12 2 1 NW54 5018 NW 37 160442 E 01/24-09 100 73 15 64 W 13 1 5195 NW 38 171029 E 01/24-10 100 73 17 62 W 14 1 5372 NW 39 181617 E 01/24-11 100 53 19 59 NW 14 22 2 1 NW39 5548 NW 40 192204 E 01/24-12 100 53 21 56 NW 15 1 5884 NW 40 204219 E 01/24-13 100 53 22 54 NW 15 1 6219 NW 40 216234 E 01/24-14 100 53 22 52 NW 15 24 2 1 NW31 6554 NW 40 228249 E 01/24-15 100 53 22 52 NW 16 1 6155 NW 39 209139 E 01/24-16 100 53 20 54 NW 16 1 5756 NW 38 190028 E 01/24-17 72 30 17 60 NW 16 25 2 1 N43 5358 NW 37 170917 E 01/24-18 72 30 15 64 NW 15 1 5234 NW 36 164899 E 01/24-19 72 30 14 68 NW 14 1 5110 NW 36 158880 E 01/24-20 72 30 12 71 NW 14 22 2 1 N48 4986 NW 36 152861 E 01/24-21 72 30 11 73 NW 13 1 4319 NW 35 129129 V 01/24-22 72 30 10 74 W 7 1 3652 NW 32 105396 V 01/24-23 72 30 9 75 W 7 7 2 1 N48 2984 NW 31 81663 G 01/25-00 72 30 8 76 W 7 1 2696 NW 30 70889 G 01/25-01 72 30 7 77 W 7 1 2408 NW 29 60114 G 01/25-02 72 30 6 77 W 6 6 2 1 N43 2120 NW 26 49339 F 01/25-03 72 30 6 76 W 6 1 2084 NW 25 45847 F 01/25-04 72 30 6 74 W 6 1 2049 NW 24 42354 F 01/25-05 63 10 6 71 W 6 6 2 1 NW40 2013 NW 22 38862 P 01/25-06 63 10 6 66 W 6 1 2377 NW 22 45679 F 01/25-07 63 10 7 60 W 6 1 2741 NW 22 52497 F 01/25-08 63 10 11 51 W 6 6 2 1 NW53 3105 NW 22 59315 F 01/25-09 63 10 15 46 W 6 1 3744 NW 23 77668 G 01/25-10 63 10 19 43 W 6 1 4383 NW 25 96022 G 01/25-11 63 10 22 40 W 6 6 2 1 NW58 5021 NW 26 114376 V 01/25-12 63 10 25 37 W 6 1 5129 NW 25 113908 V 01/25-13 63 10 27 35 W 5 1 5236 N 25 113439 V 01/25-14 63 10 28 35 W 5 5 2 1 NW55 5343 N 24 112970 V 01/25-15 63 10 28 36 W 5 1 4938 N 22 97356 G 01/25-16 63 10 26 39 W 5 1 4532 NW 21 81742 G 01/25-17 59 10 23 46 W 3 3 2 1 N59 4127 NW 18 66129 G KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...NICK COLLARD REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100123.RYANG.01/BOU