FNUS72 KJAX 241225
FWSJAX

SPOT FORECAST FOR MCCOLSKEY STILL...USDA- FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
725 AM EST SUN JAN 24 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EST ON JANUARY 24.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
THE FLOW WILL REMAIN MOIST BUT BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TODAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT SWEEPS EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH DRIER AND COOLER
AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES
TODAY AND JUST ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES ON MONDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...
THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TODAY. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG
                    AND DRIZZLE EARLY IN THE MORNING. A CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.
MIN HUMIDITY........68 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 18 MPH INCREASING TO 20 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1600...THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAXIMUM 2500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHEAST 13 TO 17 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTH 23
                    TO 29 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....61.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.

TIME (EST)       9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%)..........76     72     68     66     68
WEATHER COV......PATCHY                     CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE.....FOG    NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR
TEMP.............66     71     74     76     74
RH...............83     79     74     70     73
20 FT WIND.......SSE 14 S 17   S 20   S 21   S 20
20 FT WIND GUST..20     25     30     27     26
MIX HGT (FT).....1000   1300   2400   2400   1400
TRANSPORT WIND...SE 17  S 23   S 29   S 29   S 23
CHC OF PCPN (%)..10     10     10     10     30
LAL..............1      1      1      1      2

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
                    THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 59.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 20 MPH.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 0100...THEN 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......600-1400 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 16 TO 23 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....20.
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.

TIME (EST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........67     64     74     74     84     74
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE DEFNTE DEFNTE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............71     66     64     63     62     61
RH..............81     93     100    100    100    100
20 FT WIND......S 17   S 16   S 18   S 20   SW 17  SW 13
20 FT WIND GUST.20     20     20            20     15
MIX HGT (FT)....1400   1200   900    900    700    600
TRANSPORT WIND..S 23   S 20   S 23   S 23   S 23   SW 16
CHC OF PCPN (%).30     50     50     50     90     90
LAL.............2      2      2      2      3      3

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68.
MIN HUMIDITY........38 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 10 TO 17 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.

$$
FORECASTER...SHASHY
REQUESTED BY...PETER MYERS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100124.MCCOL.01/JAX