FNUS72 KMLB 261306
FWSMLB

SPOT FORECAST FOR UNIT 1 2B...USFWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
806 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EST ON JANUARY 26.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...THE BURN AREA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS TODAY AS A WEAK REINFORCING SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP SURFACE AND TRANSPORT LAYER
WINDS BLOWING OFFSHORE WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON
AS HIGHER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE MIX DOWN.

A DRY CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORY (WINDS BLOWING OFFSHORE) WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE, AND ACCORDING TO THE LAT LON INDICATED IN THE SPOT
FORECAST REQUEST, THE BURN SITE APPEARS TO BE JUST NORTH OF THE
NORTH TIP OF THE INDIAN RIVER LAGOON. THUS, IT SEEMS AS IF THESE
FACTORS SHOULD MITIGATE THE TENDENCY FOR LOCALLY HIGHER SURFACE RH
VALUES.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURE
AND DEW POINT VALUES ACROSS A SMALL NORTH-SOUTH AREA AT THE NORTH
TIP OF THE I.R. LAGOON - AS OF 1215 UTC (715 AM) TOWER #421, SOUTH
OF THE BURN SITE SHOWED (T=56, TD=53); TWR #819 HAD (T=45, TD=45);
FINALLY A MESONET SITE NORTH OF THE BURN SITE SHOWED (T=44, TD=44).

WILL MONITOR LOCAL TOWER MESONET DATA AS IT APPEARS THERE WILL
BE SIGNIFICANT MESOSCALE INFLUENCES AT/NEAR THE BURN SITE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67.
MIN HUMIDITY........29 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS INCREASING TO 9 TO 13 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2300 FT AGL BY
                    LATE MORNING AND 3500 FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 13 TO 22 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 18
                    TO 23 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....69.
LVORI...............0.

TIME (EST)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM
SKY (%).........CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............59  62  64  66  67  67  66  63  60  57  55  53
RH..............50  42  37  33  31  31  33  37  46  57  63  69
20 FT WIND DIR..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD..9   10  12  12  13  13  13  12  8   7   7   6
20 FT WIND GUST.10  13  15  15  16  16  16  15  10  9   9   8

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 44.
MAX HUMIDITY........87 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500-1100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 TO 18 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 7
                    TO 8 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
DISPERSION INDEX....5.
LVORI...............5.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.
MIN HUMIDITY........39 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2400-2900 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 8 TO 14 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....28.
LVORI...............0.

$$
FORECASTER...CRISTALDI
REQUESTED BY...ROBERT VERNACHIO
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100126.UNIT1.01/MLB