FNUS75 KBOU 281451 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR RYAN GULCH...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 751 AM MST THU JAN 28 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH WARMER AIR ALOFT BEING ADVECTED FROM AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL KEEP AN INVERSION OVER THE BURN AREA. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS COULD MOVE IN TO HELP SOME MIXING...BUT SATELLITE SHOWING A LOT OF CLEARING UP STREAM. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE MOVING IN OVER THE STATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY KEEPING SMOKE DISPERSION IN THE POOR CATEGORY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........DECREASING CLOUDS. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1700. MAX TEMPERATURE.....34. MIN HUMIDITY........51%. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH 8-13 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 4-12 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN NORTHWEST 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2600-3600 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 5200-5600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....6. MAX HUMIDITY........100%. WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 4-8 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN WEST. MIXING HEIGHT.......3000-4000 FT AGL UNTIL 2000...THEN 400-1400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1700...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....33. MIN HUMIDITY........32%. WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2400-3400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1400...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1600...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 7. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 0600 UNTIL 1800...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 9. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 10. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR RYAN GULCH. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 01/28-07 65 26 21 77 S 8 1 1815 S 8 13521 P 01/28-08 65 26 21 75 SW 7 7 2 1 SW15 1776 S 7 11099 P 01/28-09 65 26 24 69 S 5 1 2906 S 7 16351 P 01/28-10 55 26 29 61 SE 2 1 4036 SW 7 21603 P 01/28-11 59 20 32 55 CALM 1 2 1 SW13 5165 SW 6 26855 P 01/28-12 59 20 34 52 E 2 1 5281 W 6 29059 P 01/28-13 59 20 34 51 N 5 1 5398 NW 7 31264 P 01/28-14 49 20 34 52 N 6 6 2 1 W 6 5514 N 7 33468 P 01/28-15 49 20 34 52 NW 6 1 5450 N 6 28452 P 01/28-16 49 20 33 53 NW 5 1 5385 N 5 23435 P 01/28-17 43 8 31 56 NW 3 3 2 1 W13 5321 N 3 18419 P 01/28-18 43 8 28 62 NW 2 1 4036 N 3 13295 P 01/28-19 43 8 24 71 NW 2 1 2751 N 3 8171 P 01/28-20 43 8 20 80 CALM 1 2 1 NW18 1467 N 2 3047 P 01/28-21 33 8 18 87 CALM 1 1167 N 2 2365 P 01/28-22 33 8 16 90 CALM 1 868 NW 2 1682 P 01/28-23 24 5 15 93 CALM 1 2 1 NW20 569 NW 2 1000 P 01/29-00 24 5 13 96 SW 2 1 512 NW 2 1020 P 01/29-01 24 5 12 97 SW 2 1 456 W 2 1040 P 01/29-02 24 5 11 98 SW 3 3 2 1 N28 400 W 3 1061 P 01/29-03 24 5 10 99 SW 3 1 365 W 3 1071 P 01/29-04 24 5 9 100 SW 3 1 331 W 3 1081 P 01/29-05 16 0 8 100 W 3 3 3 1 N33 296 W 5 1092 P 01/29-06 16 0 8 80 SW 3 1 227 W 5 896 P 01/29-07 16 0 9 71 W 3 1 268 W 5 1008 P 01/29-08 16 0 13 58 W 2 2 3 1 N35 310 W 5 1120 P 01/29-09 16 0 17 49 W 2 1 992 NW 6 7529 P 01/29-10 16 0 21 44 NW 3 1 1674 NW 8 13939 P 01/29-11 16 0 25 40 NW 3 3 3 1 N37 2357 N 10 20348 P 01/29-12 16 0 28 36 NW 5 1 2902 N 12 28668 P 01/29-13 16 0 30 33 NW 6 1 3447 N 12 36988 P 01/29-14 16 0 31 32 NW 6 6 2 1 N33 3992 N 13 45308 F 01/29-15 16 0 31 32 NW 6 1 3394 NW 12 36599 P 01/29-16 16 0 29 35 NW 6 1 2796 NW 12 27890 P 01/29-17 32 0 25 40 NW 6 6 2 1 NW31 2197 NW 10 19181 P 01/29-18 32 0 22 44 W 5 1 1596 NW 9 13512 P 01/29-19 32 0 19 47 W 5 1 994 W 8 7842 P 01/29-20 32 0 17 49 SW 5 5 2 1 NW29 392 W 7 2173 P 01/29-21 32 0 15 51 SW 5 1 321 W 6 1680 P 01/29-22 32 0 13 53 SW 3 1 250 W 5 1188 P 01/29-23 32 0 11 54 SW 3 3 2 1 NW28 179 W 5 695 P 01/30-00 32 0 10 55 SW 5 1 160 W 5 616 P 01/30-01 32 0 9 56 SW 5 1 142 SW 5 537 P 01/30-02 32 0 8 57 SW 5 5 2 1 NW29 123 SW 5 457 P 01/30-03 32 0 7 58 SW 5 1 119 SW 5 472 P 01/30-04 32 0 7 59 SW 6 1 114 SW 5 487 P 01/30-05 32 0 7 60 SW 6 6 2 1 NW29 110 SW 6 502 P 01/30-06 32 0 8 61 SW 5 1 126 SW 5 485 P 01/30-07 32 0 9 60 S 3 1 141 SW 3 468 P 01/30-08 32 0 14 52 S 3 3 2 1 NW28 156 S 3 451 P 01/30-09 32 0 19 44 S 3 1 721 SW 5 4302 P 01/30-10 32 0 24 38 W 5 1 1287 W 6 8152 P 01/30-11 32 0 29 33 W 5 5 2 1 W28 1852 W 7 12003 P 01/30-12 32 0 32 29 W 6 1 2943 W 9 26938 P 01/30-13 32 0 35 26 W 6 1 4035 W 12 41874 F 01/30-14 32 0 36 25 W 6 6 2 1 W30 5127 W 13 56810 F 01/30-15 32 0 36 26 W 5 1 4130 W 10 42097 F 01/30-16 32 0 33 28 W 3 1 3133 W 9 27384 P 01/30-17 48 0 29 34 W 2 2 4 1 W32 2135 SW 7 12670 P 01/30-18 48 0 26 40 W 2 1 1530 SW 6 8863 P 01/30-19 48 0 23 48 CALM 1 925 SW 6 5055 P 01/30-20 48 0 20 56 W 2 2 3 1 SW31 319 SW 5 1247 P 01/30-21 48 0 18 65 SW 2 1 274 SW 5 1092 P 01/30-22 48 0 16 75 SW 2 1 228 SW 5 936 P 01/30-23 48 0 14 83 SW 3 3 3 1 SW31 182 SW 5 781 P 01/31-00 48 0 13 90 SW 3 1 168 SW 5 677 P 01/31-01 48 0 12 94 SW 3 1 154 SW 5 574 P 01/31-02 48 0 11 96 SW 2 2 3 1 SW41 140 SW 3 471 P 01/31-03 48 0 10 97 SW 2 1 141 SW 5 514 P 01/31-04 48 0 10 96 SW 2 1 141 SW 5 557 P 01/31-05 67 20 10 93 SW 3 3 3 1 SW52 142 SW 5 600 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...NICK COLLARD REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100128.RYANG.01/BOU