FNUS72 KMHX 091339 FWSMHX SPOT FORECAST FOR CREEF AG UNIT...USFWS ALLIGATOR RIVER NWR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 839 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0835 EST ON FEBRUARY 09. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE GULF. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION...WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE EXITING LOW WILL DROP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 30% WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH LATE WEEK. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY. PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP AFTER 1 PM THEN BECOME WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER AFTER 4 PM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.10 TO 0.25" ARE EXPECTED BY 7 PM THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME EAST 5 TO 10 MPH BY 11 AM THEN INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH AFTER 1 PM. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN LATE IN THE MORNING. RAIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 44. MIN HUMIDITY........60 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1900-2300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 5 TO 12 MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 20 MPH LATE. TIME (EST) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............79 88 97 100 100 WEATHER COV......... S CHC S CHC LIKELY DEFNTE WEATHER TYPE........NONE RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN TEMP................32 38 41 43 43 MIN HUMIDITY........75 64 62 62 70 20 FT WIND (MPH)....NE 6 E 7 E 9 E 12 E 15 20 FT WIND GUST..... 10 15 15 25 HAINES INDEX........4 3 3 2 2 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN...MAINLY IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 34. MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 12 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH...BECOMING WEST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1400-2200 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 17 TO 20 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 8 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT...INCREASING TO AROUND 29 MPH LATE. TIME (EST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............100 99 97 94 91 71 WEATHER COV.........DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN TEMP................41 40 40 40 40 39 MIN HUMIDITY........89 100 100 100 92 89 20 FT WIND (MPH)....E 17 E 16 S 13 SW 8 W 9 W 16 20 FT WIND GUST.....25 25 20 10 10 25 HAINES INDEX........2 2 3 3 3 3 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 36. MIN HUMIDITY........38 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDY. WEST WINDS 23 TO 32 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 33 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1600-2800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4200 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 30 MPH...INCREASING TO 50 TO 60 MPH. TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............30 23 20 35 44 44 WEATHER COV.........S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN NONE NONE TEMP................37 35 34 35 36 36 MIN HUMIDITY........85 75 72 59 38 43 20 FT WIND (MPH)....W 23 W 28 W 31 W 32 W 33 W 33 20 FT WIND GUST.....35 40 50 50 50 50 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...ELARDO REQUESTED BY...GREG SUSZEK TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100209.CREEF.01/MHX