FNUS75 KPUB 122049
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR RESERVOIR BURN...PUEBLO WEST F.D.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
149 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2010

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE BURN SITE THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS PRETTY
DRY...SO ITS MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO BRING AN INCREASE IN MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

ON SATURDAY...A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE SITE.  THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING A FURTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR AN AFTERNOON RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER.

THE 20 FOOT WIND FORECAST FOR SATURDAY IS A BIT TRICKY.  MODELS INDICATE
A SHALLOW SURFACE INVERSION WILL REMAIN INTACT THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WHICH WOULD SUGGEST TYPICAL DIURNAL CIRCULATIONS (LIGHT DOWNVALLEY
WINDS IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY LIGHT UPVALLEY WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON). THE FORECAST BELOW IS BASED ON THIS SCENARIO.  HOWEVER...
WINDS NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SURFACE WILL BE BLOWING FROM THE NORTHWEST
AT 15 TO 25 MPH IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.  IF THE
SURFACE INVERSION BREAKS...AND THESE WINDS MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE...THEN
AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS COULD BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 MPH
INSTEAD OF FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.  THIS COULD BE A BIG
DIFFERENCE IN BURN AND SMOKE MANAGEMENT TACTICS.

PLEASE SUBMIT A NEW SPOT REQUEST IN THE MORNING TO SEE IF THIS
FORECAST IS ON TRACK OR A REVISED FORECAST IS NEEDED.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....19-24F.
MAX HUMIDITY........73-78 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
                    POSSIBLE AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....49-54F.
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........DOWNVALLEY (WEST TO NORTHWEST) 3-8 MPH UNTIL
                    1200...THEN BECOMING UPVALLEY (EAST TO SOUTHEAST)
                    5-10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 6500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    GOOD UNTIL UNTIL 1600...THEN FAIR.

$$
FORECASTER...WALROD
REQUESTED BY...ROBERT SUTPHEN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100213.RESER.02/PUB