FNUS75 KBOU 172331 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR SUNSHINE LICKSKILLET PILE BURN...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 431 PM MST WED FEB 17 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...MOISTURE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH A WEATHER DISTURBANCE TO PRODUCE SNOW AFTER 1100 ON THURSDAY. ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. SMOKE DISPERSAL WILL BE POOR THROUGH 1100 THEN FAIR THROUGH 1700...THEN POOR AFTER 1700. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 2300...THEN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 0500...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW. MIN TEMPERATURE.....20. MAX HUMIDITY........69%. WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN WEST 8-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3200-4200 FT AGL UNTIL 2100...THEN 800-1800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1900...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1100...THEN SNOW LIKELY UNTIL 1700...THEN SNOW. MAX TEMPERATURE.....29. MIN HUMIDITY........60%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST 8-11 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3200-4200 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .THURSDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SNOW UNTIL 2300...THEN SNOW LIKELY UNTIL 0500...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW. MIN TEMPERATURE.....16. MAX HUMIDITY........100%. WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2800-3400 FT AGL UNTIL 2000...THEN 1200-2200 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1100...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1700. MAX TEMPERATURE.....27. MIN HUMIDITY........63%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST 10-16 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2800-3800 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 4800-5800 FT AGL UNTIL 1700...THEN 2000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1100...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1700...THEN FAIR. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 1200. LOWS AROUND 17. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. WEST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 18. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. WEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600. LOWS AROUND 15. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 17. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR SUNSHINE LICKSKILLET PILE BURN. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 02/17-16 97 10 35 46 W 6 1 5195 W 17 75984 G 02/17-17 90 33 33 51 W 3 3 2 1 W20 5136 W 14 63614 G 02/17-18 90 33 31 55 W 2 1 4417 W 13 50081 F 02/17-19 90 33 29 59 W 3 1 3698 W 10 36548 P 02/17-20 90 33 27 63 SW 3 3 2 1 NW14 2980 W 9 23015 P 02/17-21 90 33 26 66 SW 5 1 2285 W 8 17231 P 02/17-22 90 33 25 69 W 5 1 1591 W 8 11447 P 02/17-23 74 20 24 66 W 6 6 3 1 NW13 897 W 7 5663 P 02/18-00 74 20 23 68 W 7 1 767 W 8 4953 P 02/18-01 74 20 22 68 W 7 1 637 W 8 4244 P 02/18-02 74 20 22 68 W 8 8 3 1 W16 508 W 8 3534 P 02/18-03 74 20 21 68 W 8 1 550 W 8 4024 P 02/18-04 74 20 21 68 W 9 1 592 W 9 4513 P 02/18-05 77 35 21 63 W 9 9 3 1 W29 634 W 9 5002 P 02/18-06 77 35 22 63 W 10 1 727 W 10 6428 P 02/18-07 77 35 21 65 W 10 1 820 W 10 7853 P 02/18-08 77 35 23 64 W 10 10 3 1 W31 913 W 12 9278 P 02/18-09 77 35 24 61 W 9 1 1794 W 15 27117 P 02/18-10 77 35 26 60 W 8 1 2674 W 17 44956 F 02/18-11 84 60 27 60 W 7 7 3 1 W31 3554 W 21 62795 G 02/18-12 84 60 28 60 W 7 1 3926 W 21 69447 G 02/18-13 84 60 28 60 W 6 1 4298 W 21 76099 G 02/18-14 84 60 29 61 W 6 6 3 1 W38 4670 W 21 82751 G 02/18-15 84 60 28 64 SW 5 1 4048 W 18 65828 G 02/18-16 84 60 27 66 S 3 1 3426 W 16 48906 F 02/18-17 98 80 25 64 NW 5 5 3 1 W30 2803 W 13 31983 P 02/18-18 98 80 24 69 NW 5 1 3352 N 8 22790 P 02/18-19 98 80 23 75 N 5 1 2864 N 7 18310 P 02/18-20 98 80 21 81 NE 5 5 3 1 W23 1172 N 2 2673 P 02/18-21 98 80 20 86 NE 5 1 2290 N 6 11904 P 02/18-22 98 80 19 91 N 6 1 2206 N 5 9978 P 02/18-23 98 70 18 93 N 6 6 3 1 W21 1252 N 5 4507 P 02/19-00 98 70 18 96 N 6 1 1873 N 5 6733 P 02/19-01 98 70 17 96 N 5 1 1625 NW 3 5415 P 02/19-02 98 70 17 97 N 5 5 2 1 W26 1003 NW 5 4108 P 02/19-03 98 70 17 99 NW 5 1 1374 NW 3 4704 P 02/19-04 98 70 16 100 W 5 1 1371 W 5 5311 P 02/19-05 84 30 17 100 W 6 6 2 1 NW36 1242 W 9 9917 P 02/19-06 84 30 17 98 W 7 1 1640 SW 6 8470 P 02/19-07 84 30 17 95 W 8 1 1911 SW 7 11022 P 02/19-08 84 30 19 87 W 9 9 2 1 NW41 1531 W 15 19710 P 02/19-09 84 30 20 78 W 9 1 3307 SW 9 29727 P 02/19-10 84 30 22 71 W 10 1 4432 W 12 45882 F 02/19-11 87 20 24 65 W 10 10 4 1 W39 3050 W 24 62812 G 02/19-12 87 20 25 64 W 10 1 5793 W 14 72185 G 02/19-13 87 20 26 63 W 12 1 6030 W 16 82334 G 02/19-14 87 20 26 64 W 12 12 2 1 W46 3895 W 25 84862 G 02/19-15 87 20 26 64 W 13 1 5938 W 17 88048 G 02/19-16 87 20 25 64 W 14 1 5609 W 17 83613 G 02/19-17 88 5 24 67 W 15 24 2 1 W53 2005 W 26 46956 F 02/19-18 88 5 22 71 W 15 1 3968 W 14 56051 F 02/19-19 88 5 21 75 W 14 1 2656 W 12 32923 P 02/19-20 88 5 20 80 W 13 13 2 1 W58 423 W 14 5230 P 02/19-21 88 5 19 86 W 10 1 1172 W 8 8663 P 02/19-22 88 5 18 91 W 8 1 1000 W 9 7531 P 02/19-23 86 7 18 94 NW 6 6 2 1 W67 386 W 6 1806 P 02/20-00 86 7 17 97 NW 5 1 759 W 9 5938 P 02/20-01 86 7 17 97 NW 5 1 691 W 9 5478 P 02/20-02 86 7 17 97 NW 6 6 3 1 W55 283 W 6 1353 P 02/20-03 86 7 16 96 W 7 1 663 W 9 5347 P 02/20-04 86 7 16 94 W 8 1 703 W 9 5676 P 02/20-05 72 8 16 93 W 9 9 3 1 W47 224 W 9 1764 P 02/20-06 72 8 17 96 W 13 1 02/20-07 72 8 17 98 W 15 1 02/20-08 72 8 19 94 W 17 28 1 02/20-09 72 8 21 85 W 17 1 02/20-10 72 8 23 76 W 16 1 02/20-11 72 30 25 69 W 14 22 1 02/20-12 72 30 26 68 W 13 1 02/20-13 72 30 27 68 W 12 1 02/20-14 72 30 27 69 W 10 10 1 02/20-15 72 30 27 69 SW 9 1 02/20-16 72 30 27 69 SW 7 1 02/20-17 82 30 25 70 S 6 6 1 KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...RICH PALESTRO REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100218.SUNSH.01/BOU