FNUS75 KBOU 191612 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR HEIL PA7 UNIT 1 PA10 U1...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 912 AM MST FRI FEB 19 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE BURN AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVELS WILL BE MOIST AS WELL AS UPSLOPE FLOW REMAINS OVER THE PLAINS UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS. SMOKE DISPERSION WILL REMAIN POOR THROUGH SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND KEEPS AN INVERSION OVER THE AREA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH SNOW BECOMING MORE LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE BETWEEN HALF AND INCH TO AN INCH BY TOMORROW MORNING. MORE SNOW IS ON THE WAY SATURDAY WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED NEAR THE BURN SITE DURING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1400...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW. MAX TEMPERATURE.....29. MIN HUMIDITY........63%. WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3600-4600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. MIN TEMPERATURE.....11. MAX HUMIDITY........100%. WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST UP TO 4 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN SOUTHWEST. MIXING HEIGHT.......1400-2400 FT AGL UNTIL 2000...THEN 200-600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1100...THEN SNOW LIKELY UNTIL 1700...THEN SNOW. MAX TEMPERATURE.....26. MIN HUMIDITY........81%. WIND (20 FT)........UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTHEAST AROUND 8 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1400-2400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SUNDAY...SNOW UNTIL 0600...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 11. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1800. LOWS AROUND 10. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. NOT AS COOL. LOWS AROUND 14. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR HEIL PA7 UNIT 1 PA10 U1. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 02/19-08 74 20 16 93 W 3 3 2 1 W28 1889 S 6 9156 P 02/19-09 74 20 18 89 W 5 1 2682 S 6 14713 P 02/19-10 74 20 21 81 W 5 1 3476 S 7 20270 P 02/19-11 84 20 23 74 W 5 5 2 1 W32 4270 SW 7 25826 P 02/19-12 84 20 26 68 SW 3 1 4627 SW 7 26844 P 02/19-13 84 20 27 64 S 2 1 4984 SW 7 27862 P 02/19-14 84 25 28 63 CALM 1 2 1 W30 5341 SW 6 28879 P 02/19-15 84 25 28 63 S 2 1 4655 S 5 22048 P 02/19-16 84 25 27 65 SW 5 1 3968 S 5 15218 P 02/19-17 95 30 26 68 W 6 6 2 1 W28 3282 SE 3 8387 P 02/19-18 95 30 22 80 W 5 1 2383 SE 2 6000 P 02/19-19 95 30 20 87 W 3 1 1484 E 2 3613 P 02/19-20 95 30 18 94 W 2 2 2 1 W38 585 E 2 1226 P 02/19-21 95 30 17 100 W 3 1 469 SE 2 888 P 02/19-22 95 30 15 100 W 5 1 354 CALM 550 P 02/19-23 97 40 14 100 SW 6 6 2 1 W48 238 CALM 211 P 02/20-00 97 40 13 100 SW 6 1 221 CALM 251 P 02/20-01 97 40 13 100 SW 5 1 204 CALM 291 P 02/20-02 97 40 12 100 SW 5 5 2 1 W45 187 S 2 331 P 02/20-03 97 40 12 100 SW 3 1 188 SW 2 361 P 02/20-04 97 40 12 100 W 3 1 190 W 2 391 P 02/20-05 95 43 11 94 W 3 3 2 1 W51 217 W 5 789 P 02/20-06 95 43 11 100 S 3 1 239 W 3 705 P 02/20-07 95 43 11 100 S 3 1 261 SW 2 621 P 02/20-08 95 43 15 97 S 3 3 2 1 W44 283 S 2 536 P 02/20-09 95 43 21 84 S 5 1 823 S 3 4433 P 02/20-10 95 43 26 81 S 6 1 1363 S 6 8331 P 02/20-11 95 66 26 89 S 7 7 2 1 W33 1902 S 7 12228 P 02/20-12 95 66 26 91 S 8 1 2149 S 8 14840 P 02/20-13 95 66 25 93 SE 8 1 2395 S 8 17452 P 02/20-14 95 66 26 89 SE 8 8 2 1 SW31 2642 S 9 20064 P 02/20-15 95 66 26 87 SE 7 1 2380 S 8 16229 P 02/20-16 95 66 26 86 SE 7 1 2119 S 7 12393 P 02/20-17 99 78 23 97 SE 6 6 2 1 W41 1857 S 6 8557 P 02/20-18 99 78 21 93 SE 6 1 1389 SE 6 6437 P 02/20-19 99 78 19 94 E 6 1 921 E 6 4316 P 02/20-20 99 78 18 96 E 6 6 2 1 W33 453 E 6 2195 P 02/20-21 99 78 16 98 E 6 1 508 E 6 2474 P 02/20-22 99 78 16 100 E 6 1 564 E 6 2752 P 02/20-23 99 78 15 100 E 6 6 2 1 W30 620 E 6 3031 P 02/21-00 99 78 15 100 E 6 1 620 E 6 3034 P 02/21-01 99 78 15 98 NE 6 1 619 E 6 3037 P 02/21-02 99 78 15 95 NE 6 6 2 1 SW36 619 NE 6 3040 P 02/21-03 99 78 14 91 NE 7 1 624 E 6 3420 P 02/21-04 99 78 14 88 E 7 1 629 E 7 3800 P 02/21-05 91 40 14 87 E 8 8 2 1 SW30 634 E 8 4181 P 02/21-06 91 40 14 89 E 8 1 1096 E 6 4523 P 02/21-07 91 40 14 94 E 8 1 1559 NE 5 4866 P 02/21-08 91 40 14 99 E 7 7 2 1 W29 2021 NE 3 5208 P 02/21-09 91 40 15 100 E 6 1 2618 N 6 15147 P 02/21-10 91 40 16 100 S 5 1 3214 W 8 25086 P 02/21-11 91 40 18 100 S 3 3 2 1 W30 3811 W 10 35025 P 02/21-12 91 40 19 100 SW 5 1 3669 W 14 41876 F 02/21-13 91 40 20 93 SW 6 1 3527 W 16 48727 F 02/21-14 91 40 21 87 W 7 7 3 1 W37 3385 W 18 55578 F 02/21-15 91 40 21 81 SW 7 1 3180 W 16 45790 F 02/21-16 91 40 20 77 SW 6 1 2974 W 14 36002 P 02/21-17 82 31 19 76 SW 5 5 3 1 W38 2769 W 10 26214 P 02/21-18 82 31 18 77 SW 5 1 2439 SW 9 20094 P 02/21-19 82 31 17 81 S 5 1 2109 SW 7 13973 P 02/21-20 82 31 15 84 S 5 5 3 1 W33 1778 SW 5 7853 P 02/21-21 82 31 15 86 S 5 1 1699 SW 6 7689 P 02/21-22 82 31 14 88 S 5 1 1619 S 6 7526 P 02/21-23 82 31 14 88 S 5 5 3 1 W32 1540 S 6 7363 P 02/22-00 82 31 13 88 S 5 1 1285 SW 6 6104 P 02/22-01 82 31 13 87 SW 5 1 1031 SW 6 4846 P 02/22-02 82 31 13 86 SW 5 5 3 1 W46 776 SW 6 3588 P 02/22-03 82 31 13 83 SW 6 1 674 SW 6 3247 P 02/22-04 82 31 12 80 W 6 1 571 W 6 2906 P 02/22-05 48 10 12 82 W 7 7 3 1 W40 469 W 6 2566 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...BOULDER COUNTY SHERIFF S OFFICE REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100219.HEILP.01/BOU