FNUS75 KGJT 191611
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR PACK CREEK PILES...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
911 AM MST FRI FEB 19 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0820 MST ON FEBRUARY 19.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE BURN AREA THIS AFTERNOON
INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT ALSO RESULTING IN WARMING
ALOFT THAT WILL RESTRICT THE CLEARING INDEX. INSTABILITY INCREASES
ON SATURDAY AS SHOULD TRANSPORT WINDS WHICH WILL BOOST THE
CLEARING INDEX. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE BACK ACROSS AS A COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (80-90%). SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING. RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS BECOMIN
MAX TEMPERATURE.....40-45 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........58-63%.
WIND (20 FT)........DOWNSLOPE 5 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN VARIABLE BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 MPH IN THE AFTE
CLEARING INDEX......100 DECREASING TO 50 LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    INCREASING TO 230 IN THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT UP TO 450 IN/NEAR SHOWERS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL...UP TO 4000 FT AT TIMES IN/NEAR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 13 MPH AFTER 1300.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100%). NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....22-27 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........82-87%.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 MPH.
CLEARING INDEX......120.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 MPH.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100%). NUMEROUS SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....36-40 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........63-68%.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 MPH.
CLEARING INDEX......400...EXCEPT 500+ IN/NEAR SHOWERS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL...EXCEPT HIGHER IN/NEAR SHOWERS.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 17 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...JIM DANIELS
REQUESTED BY...PHIL DENDEL
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100219.PACKC.02/GJT