FNUS72 KMHX 221404
FWSMHX

SPOT FORECAST FOR GREAT LAKE RD...US FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
904 AM EST MON FEB 22 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EST ON FEBRUARY 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL 2-4 PM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SCATTERED SHOWER 11 AM - 2 PM.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A
SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY AND MOVE
OFF THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS TUESDAY THEN CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY.
                    A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE LATE
                    MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS LIKELY AND
                    A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 65.
MIN HUMIDITY........58 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH...GUSTS TO 20 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR ANY
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL THIS MORNING. MAX 3600 FT AGL EARLY
                    AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 10 TO 12 MPH EARLY..INCREASING TO 25 MPH
                    THIS AFTERNOON.

TIME (EST)          9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).............66     76     84     89     95
WEATHER COV.........       CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP................60     64     65     63     59
                    MIN HUMIDITY........68     60     58     65     79
20 FT WIND (MPH)....S 8    S 12   S 13   S 13   S 10
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     15     15     15     15
HAINES INDEX........5      3      3      3      3

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 47.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200-2100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 16 TO 23 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 9
                    TO 12 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

TIME (EST)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............98     100    100    100    100    100
WEATHER COV.........LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE
TEMP................58     55     52     51     50     49
                    MIN HUMIDITY........84     95     100    100    100    100
20 FT WIND (MPH)....S 9    S 8    S 8    W 6    W 5    W 6
20 FT WIND GUST.....15     10     10

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.
MIN HUMIDITY........61 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400-3100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 15 MPH.

TIME (EST)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............100    94     68     43     37     39
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP................48     49     55     58     59     58
                    MIN HUMIDITY........100    94     77     67     62     63
20 FT WIND (MPH)....NW 7   NW 9   NW 9   NW 10  NW 10  NW 9
20 FT WIND GUST.....       10     15     15     15     10

$$
FORECASTER...MERRELL
REQUESTED BY...JAMES CHERRY
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100222.GREAT.01/MHX