FNUS75 KBOU 231354 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR JAMES CREEK 1401...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 650 AM MST TUE FEB 23 2010 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OF MODERATE STRENGTH WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH BRUSHES ACROSS NEBRASKA. WHAT THAT MEANS FOR THE BURN AREA IS GUSTY NORTHWEST EYE-LEVEL AND 20-FOOT WINDS LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE DRY AND STABLE AIR WILL MOVE OUT OF WYOMING...PRODUCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS THEN DECREASE ONCE SURFACE INVERSIONS FORM. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT EVEN STRONGER DOWNSLOPE WINDS AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. BESIDES THE WIND...MIDDLE AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY AT THE EARLIEST. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. BREEZY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....27-33. MIN HUMIDITY........35-43%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST-NORTHWEST 9-15 MPH. GUSTS TO AROUND 28 MPH LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9-16 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN NORTHWEST 19-32 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......500-900 FT AGL RAISING TO 1600-1900 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000..THEN FAIR. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR. BREEZING IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....9-14. MAX HUMIDITY........77-84%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST 12-16 MPH. GUSTS TO 30 MPH BEFORE MIDNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1100-1300 FT AGL LOWERING TO 300-500 FT AGL BY 0500. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR UNTIL 1700...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....34-37. MIN HUMIDITY........28-34%. WIND (20 FT)........WEST 13-22 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 20-30 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1300...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1600...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY...CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 16. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600. LOWS AROUND 17. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 1800. LOWS AROUND 18. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR JAMES CREEK 1401. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 02/23-06 6 0 4 99 W 13 1 165 W 12 1581 P 02/23-07 6 0 6 93 W 13 1 197 W 10 1840 P 02/23-08 6 0 9 84 W 13 13 2 1 N46 229 W 10 2098 P 02/23-09 6 0 13 74 W 12 1 556 W 12 5557 P 02/23-10 6 0 17 69 W 12 1 883 W 12 9016 P 02/23-11 7 0 20 64 W 10 10 2 1 N54 1210 NW 12 12475 P 02/23-12 7 0 23 62 W 10 1 1465 NW 15 21055 P 02/23-13 7 0 25 61 W 10 1 1720 NW 18 29635 P 02/23-14 7 0 26 61 W 10 10 4 1 N51 1975 NW 22 38215 P 02/23-15 7 0 26 62 W 12 1 1749 NW 24 35754 P 02/23-16 7 0 25 63 W 13 1 1524 NW 25 33293 P 02/23-17 8 0 23 67 W 14 22 4 1 N49 1298 NW 28 30832 P 02/23-18 8 0 21 71 W 14 1 1002 NW 23 22328 P 02/23-19 8 0 19 75 W 13 1 705 NW 20 13825 P 02/23-20 8 0 17 80 W 13 13 4 1 N37 409 NW 15 5321 P 02/23-21 8 0 16 83 W 13 1 337 W 14 4204 P 02/23-22 8 0 15 85 W 13 1 266 W 13 3087 P 02/23-23 3 0 14 84 W 13 13 4 1 N29 194 W 12 1970 P 02/24-00 3 0 13 81 W 13 1 176 W 13 1847 P 02/24-01 3 0 12 76 W 14 1 157 W 13 1724 P 02/24-02 3 0 12 74 W 14 22 4 1 NW29 138 W 14 1602 P 02/24-03 3 0 11 75 W 14 1 131 W 14 1529 P 02/24-04 3 0 11 78 W 14 1 124 W 14 1457 P 02/24-05 44 0 11 81 W 14 22 3 1 NW36 118 W 14 1384 P 02/24-06 44 0 12 55 W 20 1 141 W 20 2409 P 02/24-07 44 0 13 53 W 20 1 155 W 20 2595 P 02/24-08 44 0 17 47 W 18 30 5 1 NW31 169 W 18 2780 P 02/24-09 44 0 21 41 W 17 1 348 W 21 6740 P 02/24-10 44 0 24 37 W 17 1 526 W 22 10700 P 02/24-11 44 0 27 37 W 16 25 4 1 NW16 704 W 24 14659 P 02/24-12 44 0 30 35 W 16 1 1262 W 26 30440 P 02/24-13 44 0 31 34 W 15 1 1820 W 28 46220 F 02/24-14 44 0 32 34 W 15 24 2 1 W 6 2377 W 30 62001 G 02/24-15 44 0 32 34 W 15 1 2069 W 29 52106 F 02/24-16 44 0 31 36 W 15 1 1760 W 28 42212 F 02/24-17 62 7 29 43 W 15 24 2 1 W 7 1452 W 25 32317 P 02/24-18 62 7 27 48 W 16 1 1193 W 23 25251 P 02/24-19 62 7 25 54 W 17 1 935 W 21 18184 P 02/24-20 62 7 24 61 W 18 30 2 1 W17 676 W 18 11118 P 02/24-21 62 7 22 67 W 20 1 612 W 18 9846 P 02/24-22 62 7 21 73 W 21 1 547 W 18 8575 P 02/24-23 71 15 20 77 W 21 33 2 1 NW17 483 W 17 7303 P 02/25-00 71 15 19 80 W 16 1 423 W 15 5789 P 02/25-01 71 15 18 81 W 13 1 363 W 13 4274 P 02/25-02 71 15 18 82 W 10 10 2 1 NW10 303 W 10 2759 P 02/25-03 71 15 18 85 W 9 1 310 W 9 2551 P 02/25-04 71 15 18 89 W 8 1 316 W 8 2342 P 02/25-05 98 46 17 85 W 8 8 2 1 N 5 323 W 8 2133 P 02/25-06 98 46 17 84 W 7 1 683 W 8 4584 P 02/25-07 98 46 19 80 W 6 1 1043 NW 8 7034 P 02/25-08 98 46 21 72 W 5 5 2 1 NE 8 1404 NW 8 9485 P 02/25-09 98 46 24 65 NW 3 1 2587 NW 9 22814 P 02/25-10 98 46 27 60 N 2 1 3771 N 10 36144 P 02/25-11 98 46 29 55 NE 2 2 2 1 NE 9 4955 N 12 49473 F 02/25-12 98 46 31 51 NE 3 1 5116 N 12 53689 F 02/25-13 98 46 33 49 NE 5 1 5278 N 13 57904 F 02/25-14 98 46 33 48 E 6 6 2 1 N12 5439 N 13 62120 G 02/25-15 98 46 33 49 NE 6 1 5331 N 15 69302 G 02/25-16 98 46 32 51 NE 6 1 5223 N 17 76485 G 02/25-17 94 38 30 57 NE 5 5 2 1 N13 5115 N 18 83667 G 02/25-18 94 38 28 63 NE 5 1 4593 N 18 73931 G 02/25-19 94 38 26 69 NE 5 1 4070 N 18 64196 G 02/25-20 94 38 24 76 N 5 5 2 1 NW14 3548 N 17 54461 F 02/25-21 94 38 22 81 NE 5 1 2920 N 15 41291 F 02/25-22 94 38 21 84 NE 3 1 2293 N 13 28122 P 02/25-23 94 30 20 78 NE 3 3 2 1 NW14 1666 N 10 14953 P 02/26-00 94 30 19 80 NE 3 1 1396 N 9 11325 P 02/26-01 94 30 19 79 NE 3 1 1127 N 7 7696 P 02/26-02 94 30 18 79 NE 3 3 2 1 NW20 857 N 6 4067 P 02/26-03 94 30 18 80 N 5 1 832 N 6 4076 P 02/26-04 94 30 18 81 NW 7 1 808 NW 6 4085 P 02/26-05 42 5 18 81 W 7 7 2 1 NW21 783 NW 6 4093 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...BAKER WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...ED LEBLANC REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100223.JAMES.01/BOU