FNUS73 KPAH 271552 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR OAKWOOD BOTTOMS UNITS 7 13...USFS SHAWNEE NF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 952 AM CST SAT FEB 27 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 CST ON FEBRUARY 27. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... GIVEN THE ASPECT OF THE PRESCRIBED BURN...FORECAST HOURLY TEMPERATURES TODAY MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN OBSERVED GIVEN THE SUN ANGLE THIS -TIME OF YEAR. SCATTERED...HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE THE DOMINANT CLOUD COVER TODAY...BUT SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT FOR TODAYS PRESCRIBED BURN. GIVEN THE CHANNELING OF WINDS ALONG THE RIVER BASIN... THERE MAY BE SOME UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON DURING THE TIME OF MAXIMUM MIXING DUE TO THE WINDS. A SURFACE BASED INVERSION WILL LIKELY CAUSE A SHARP DROP OFF OF SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 430 PM TO 530 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME TRAPPING OF SMOKE NEAR THE EDGES OF THE PRESCRIBED BURN. BETWEEN 7 PM AND 8 PM CST... NEARLY ALL OF THE PRESCRIBED BURN WILL SEE MIXING HEIGHTS DROP WELL BELOW THE 1700 FT AGL MINIMUMS...TRAPPING SMOKE WITHIN THE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN LOWER CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY FROM THE NORTHEAST... HOWEVER...HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL NOT BE AS GREAT FROM THE PRESCRIBED BURN AREA WEST TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........39 AT IGNITION...MAX 46. MIN HUMIDITY........38 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 27 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 6 TO 10 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 3000-3900 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 14 TO 23 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND 14 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...FINALLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH AROUND DUSK. TIME (CST) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........MCR MCR MCR CLR CLR MCR MCR MCR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............36 39 41 43 44 45 44 42 RH..............38 34 33 34 37 40 44 47 20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 7 8 8 8 7 6 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 20 20 20 20 20 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.3 3.0 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.9 3.9 TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW NW NW NW NW W SW TRANSP WIND SPD.23 25 25 25 23 20 14 6 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....24. MAX HUMIDITY........71 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING BECOMING LIGHT. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1700-3600 FT AGL DECREASING TO 900-1800 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 0 TO 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND 9 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TIME (CST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........MCR MCR PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC PC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............40 37 35 33 32 31 30 29 28 27 27 26 RH..............53 60 64 66 64 60 55 58 57 59 61 62 20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...3.6 2.7 1.7 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.8 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S SW W TRANSP WIND SPD.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 9 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 3 2 2 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....47. MIN HUMIDITY........38 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-3300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 12 TO 15 MPH. TIME (CST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........PC PC PC PC PC MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............26 26 29 33 36 39 42 44 45 46 45 44 RH..............64 64 57 52 47 44 41 40 38 39 39 43 20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW N N N N 20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.0 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW N N N N TRANSP WIND SPD.15 14 14 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...SMITH REQUESTED BY...SCOTT CRIST TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100227.OAKWO.01/PAH