FNUS73 KPAH 060809 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR OPOSSUM TROT...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 208 AM CST SAT MAR 6 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CST ON MARCH 06. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... NOTE...THIS ISSUANCE SHOULD BE CONSIDERED AS PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE. ADDITIONAL CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE BASIC ELEMENTS OF TEMPERATURE... DEWPOINT...WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY BETWEEN 3 AM AND 5 AM CST. THIS MAY ALTER THE VALUES PROVIDED HERE AND MAY REQUIRE AN ADDITIONAL UPDATE TO THIS SPOT FORECAST. WITH THAT IN MIND...LOOK FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT THE PRESCRIBED BURN SITE TO WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AIR PARCELS TO START BEGIN TO RISE AROUND TO AROUND 1000 FT AGL 9 AM CST...WITH GOOD MIXING HEIGHT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. BETWEEN 5 PM AND 6 PM CST...COOLING WILL OCCUR AT THE LOWEST 300 FEET AGL ...SERVING TO DIMINISH SURFACE/20 FOOT WINDS AND TRAP SMOKE ALONG THE COOLER EDGES OF THE PRESCRIBED BURN AREA IMMEDIATELY. BETWEEN 6 AND 9 PM CST...THE INVERSION WILL GET MUCH STRONGER IN THE LOWEST 300 FEET AGL...WITH MOST SMOKE BEING TRAPPED AT OR BELOW 700 TO 1000 FEET AGL FROM 8 OR 9 PM CST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST 8 AM CST SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME HUMIDITY RECOVERY OVERNIGHT...BUT ANY SMOKE FROM BURNING OR SMOLDERING TIMBER OVERNIGHT WILL FALL BELOW THE 1700 FOOT AGL MINIMUMS. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-5 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........43 AT IGNITION...MAX 57. MIN HUMIDITY........47 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 19 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 4 MPH AT IGNITION...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 700-2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3200-4900 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 0 TO 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 3 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CST) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............43 47 51 53 55 56 55 54 RH..............47 37 30 27 25 24 26 30 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE S S S S S SE 20 FT WIND SPD..3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.1 3.2 4.2 4.7 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.6 TRANSP WIND DIR.SE E E SE S SW SW S TRANSP WIND SPD.5 5 6 5 5 3 5 6 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....33. MAX HUMIDITY........90 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3000-4100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500-1800 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 0 TO 6 MPH. TIME (CST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........CLR MCR MCR MCR MCR PC PC PC PC MC MC MC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............51 47 45 43 42 41 40 38 38 37 36 36 RH..............36 43 47 53 57 62 67 73 73 75 79 79 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE S S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...4.1 3.0 1.8 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE S S S S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.6 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....60. MIN HUMIDITY........44 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 9 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3000-3200 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 0 TO 6 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 14 TO 22 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 5 TO 12 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............35 40 43 46 49 52 55 57 58 59 58 57 RH..............85 73 70 65 61 56 53 51 49 49 51 55 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..3 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW S TRANSP WIND SPD.0 0 0 0 6 14 20 22 21 17 12 5 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...SMITH REQUESTED BY...SCOTT CRIST TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100306.OPOSS.01/PAH