FNUS73 KPAH 061325 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR PENNANT BAR...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 725 AM CST SAT MAR 6 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CST ON MARCH 06. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... WINDS DURING THE MAJORITY OF THE PRESCRIBED BURN TIME SHOULD REMAIN FROM DUE EAST...BUT A SLIGHT EAST...SOUTHEAST COMPONENT MAY DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY DROP APPROXIMATELY 10 PERCENT EACH HOUR FROM IGNITION TIME THROUGH 1 PM CST...THEN STABILIZE AFTER 1 PM CST. ASSUMING THAT THE PRESCRIBED BURN IS COMPLETED BEFORE 5 PM CST...SMOKE MANAGEMENT SHOULD NOT BE ANY CONCERN. SHOULD ANY BURNING CONTINUE BEYOND 5 PM CST...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME CALM AND COOLING NEAR THE SURFACE WILL SET UP AN INVERSION THAT MAY TRAP SMOKE ALONG THE COOLER EDGES OF THE PRESCRIBED BURN BELOW 300 FEET AGL. THE INVERSION WILL DEEPEN AND LOWER BELOW 1700 FOOT MINIMUMS AFTER 8 PM CST FOR ANY PART OF THE PRESCRIBED BURN. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-5 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........41 AT IGNITION...MAX 55. MIN HUMIDITY........53 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 22 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS EAST AT 2 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......2300 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 500-2300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3700-5200 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 0 TO 5 MPH. TIME (CST) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR CLR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............41 45 48 51 53 53 53 51 RH..............53 42 34 29 27 27 28 31 20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E E SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.3 3.7 4.9 5.2 5.1 4.9 5.1 5.1 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S SE TRANSP WIND SPD.1 1 2 2 2 2 3 5 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....30. MAX HUMIDITY........91 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. CWR.................0 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......3400-4700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-1900 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 0 TO 5 MPH. TIME (CST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........CLR CLR MCR MCR MCR MCR PC PC PC PC PC MC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............48 45 43 41 38 35 32 30 30 30 30 31 RH..............36 44 49 56 63 70 74 81 85 86 84 78 20 FT WIND DIR..E SE SE SE SE SE S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...4.7 3.4 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 TRANSP WIND DIR.SE S S S S S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....60. MIN HUMIDITY........35 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6 TO 10 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......600-2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 1900-3300 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 0 TO 6 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 13 TO 22 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 6 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............34 37 39 42 46 50 54 56 58 59 59 58 RH..............72 67 63 62 55 50 45 42 42 40 41 42 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S SW 20 FT WIND SPD..2 3 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 8 6 5 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 10 10 15 15 15 15 20 15 15 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.5 2.1 2.7 3.1 3.3 3.2 2.7 1.9 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW S TRANSP WIND SPD.0 0 0 0 6 13 18 22 22 20 14 6 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 $$ FORECASTER...SMITH REQUESTED BY...FRANK PAUKERT TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100306.PENNA.01/PAH