FNUS73 KPAH 070645 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR BLOWDOWN UNITS 9 10...US FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1245 AM CST SUN MAR 7 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0930 CST ON MARCH 07. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... NOTE: THIS SPOT FORECAST IS CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY. A NEW FORECAST ISSUANCE...INCLUDING FIRE WEATHER ELEMENTS...WILL BE GENERATED LATER THIS MORNING. A FINAL ISSUANCE OF THIS SPOT FORECAST SHOULD BE AVAILABLE BETWEEN 430 AM AND 500 AM CST. SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY HAVE A SLIGHT SOUTHEAST COMPONENT PRIOR TO IGNITION TIME...BEFORE BECOMING DUE SOUTH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 9 AM AND 10 AM CST. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS NEAR 5000 FT AGL WILL LOWER TO 4500 FT AGL AND BECOME OVERCAST BY NOON. SPRINKLES OF RAIN CANNOT BE RULED WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER IGNITION WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...SURFACE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS WELL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE CURRENT FORECAST HOURLY RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TODAY MAY BE 5 TO 10 PERCENT TOO LOW. ANY SURFACE INVERSION WILL LIKELY SET UP WITHIN AN HOUR BEFORE SUNSET AND SHOULD DROP DOWN TO BETWEEN 600 AND 800 FT AGL BY MIDNIGHT...REMAINING AT OR BELOW 500 FT AGL THROUGH AT LEAST 7 AM CST MONDAY MORNING. ANY SUBSTANTIAL MIXING ABOVE THE 1700 FT MINIMUMS WILL NOT LIKELY OCCUR UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT) WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........48 AT IGNITION...MAX 60. MIN HUMIDITY........61 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 37 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 8 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 3. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 800-2400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 0 TO 6 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 20 TO 26 MPH. TIME (CST) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............44 48 51 54 57 58 59 58 57 RH..............61 54 50 46 44 43 44 46 49 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S SW SW S S 20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 20 FT WIND GUST. 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.7 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.1 TRANSP WIND DIR.S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W TRANSP WIND SPD.10 15 20 24 25 26 26 26 25 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....42. MAX HUMIDITY........91 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-900 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 TO 24 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 13 TO 14 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME (CST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............55 53 51 50 49 48 47 46 46 45 44 44 RH..............54 61 65 69 73 75 78 81 83 85 87 89 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S SE SE SE 20 FT WIND SPD..5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 20 FT WIND GUST. 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W W W W W W W W W NW TRANSP WIND SPD.24 23 22 21 18 17 16 15 14 13 13 13 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....63. MIN HUMIDITY........46 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 6 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......500-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2600-4300 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 1400-2100 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 12 TO 15 MPH. TIME (CST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............43 44 47 50 53 56 58 60 61 62 61 60 RH..............91 88 80 72 65 60 55 53 51 50 51 53 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 20 FT WIND GUST. 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 1.1 1.8 2.6 3.4 3.9 4.3 4.0 3.5 2.8 2.1 1.4 TRANSP WIND DIR.NW W W W SW SW S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.13 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...SMITH REQUESTED BY...SCOTT CRIST TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100307.BLOWD.01/PAH