FNUS73 KPAH 081334 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR ONE HORSE GAP...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 734 AM CST MON MAR 8 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CST ON MARCH 08. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... MAIN ISSUES TODAY REVOLVE AROUND LOW CLOUDS JUST SPREADING SOUTHWARD OVER THE BURN SITE. EXPECT THAT THEY WILL BURN OFF THIS MORNING...BUT IT WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN THE RATE OF WARMING AND DRYING. STILL FEEL THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...BUT IT MAY NOT BE VERY DRY BY IGNITION TIME. THE MIXING HEIGHT WILL ALSO BE MARGINAL AT PROPOSED IGNITION TIME...BUT WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM BY MID AFTERNOON. THE NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING MAY BE THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE DAY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT) BY MIDDAY. TEMPERATURE.........53 AT IGNITION...MAX 63. MIN HUMIDITY........65 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 43 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 2 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......1700 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 1300-3100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3500-3900 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 2 TO 7 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CST) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........MCR PC PC MCR MCR CLR CLR MCR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............53 56 58 60 61 62 61 60 RH..............65 60 56 51 49 46 47 50 20 FT WIND DIR..W NW NW NW NW NW N NE 20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 20 FT WIND GUST. 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.7 2.1 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.5 3.9 TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW W W NW NW W SW TRANSP WIND SPD.3 6 7 6 5 3 3 5 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 3 3 4 4 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....43. MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING. CWR.................0 PERCENT. MIXING HEIGHT.......1900-3800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 600-900 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5 TO 7 MPH. TIME (CST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........MCLEAR PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............58 53 50 49 46 45 RH..............56 64 71 77 89 93 20 FT WIND......E 2 E 3 E 3 E 4 SE 4 SE 4 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....3800 1900 700 800 700 700 TRANSPORT WIND..S 5 SE 5 E 5 E 6 SE 7 SE 7 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE MORNING...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....58. MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH. CWR.................68 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......700-2500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2800-3000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 14 MPH INCREASING TO 17 TO 23 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (CST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM SKY (%).........CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............44 49 55 58 RH..............86 68 66 57 20 FT WIND......S 5 S 6G10 S 8G20 S 7G20 MIX HGT (FT)....700 1300 2900 2800 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 7 S 14 S 22 S 22 CWR.............70 70 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 3 2 $$ FORECASTER...SPAETH REQUESTED BY...GREG BURKHART TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100308.ONEHO.01/PAH