FNUS73 KAPX 171414
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR MACK LAKE FUELBREAKS...USDA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1014 AM EDT WED MAR 17 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1005 EDT ON MARCH 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...TO
COMBINE WITH LACK OF WINTER SNOWFALL/MOISTURE...TO GENERATE ANOTHER WARM
AND EXTREMELY DRY DAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 50 PCT THIS MORNING
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH INTO THE TEENS AROUND NOON...WHILE WINDS SLOWLY
INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WARM UNDER GENERALLY FULL SUN.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
                    TEMPERATURE.........48 AT IGNITION...MAX 62.
                    MIN HUMIDITY........37 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 12 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS WEST AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 6 TO 9 MPH WITH
                    MAXIMUM GUSTS TO 16 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 3 TO 7 MPH INCREASING TO 11 TO 14
                    MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 100-900 FT
                    AGL INCREASING TO 6500 FT AGL.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (200) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT (1000).

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........0   9   9   9   12  12  12  12
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............44  48  55  57  59  61  62  61
RH..............42  37  26  20  16  13  12  12
20 FT WIND DIR..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT WIND SPD..4   6   6   7   7   8   8   8
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  13  14  15  16  16  15
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
SMOKE DISP......100 200 400 600 800 900 10001000

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (25-35 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36.
MAX HUMIDITY........82 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 16 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL DECREASING TO 200-400 FT AGL IN THE
                    LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........MIN 3.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0).

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........12     40     40     40     50     50
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............59     52     49     46     43     39
RH..............13     21     29     38     57     67
20 FT WIND......W 7    W 6    W 7    W 7    W 7    W 7
20 FT WIND GUST.15     15     15     15     15     15
HAINES INDEX....5      5      5      5      4      3
SMOKE DISP......900    500    100    0      0      0

$$
FORECASTER...SCOTT ROZANSKI
REQUESTED BY...DISPATCH
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100317.MACKL.03/APX