FNUS72 KILM 171239 FWSILM SPOT FORECAST FOR SAVANNA...NATIONAL PARK SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 839 AM EDT WED MAR 17 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON MARCH 17. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA MAINTAINING A LIGHT NE FLOW TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFFSHORE OF SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT... LINGERING OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN A GENERAL NE FLOW ACCOMPANIED BY A CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR THE COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE. HOWEVER...PLEASE NOTE THAT THE WIND PROFILE THIS MORNING IS SIMILAR TO AN UNFAVORABLE 1-B TYPE PROFILE...EXCEPT THAT THE WIND MAXIMUM IS LOCATED AROUND 2000 FEET INSTEAD OF 1000 FEET. THIS RESULTS IS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE THIS MORNING...BECOMING FAVORABLE THIS AFTERNOON. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........45 AT IGNITION...MAX 63. MIN HUMIDITY........77 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 35 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTH AT 4 MPH AT IGNITION...BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE INCREASING TO 5000 FT AGL BY AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS........NORTH AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING EAST AROUND NOON. TIME (EDT) 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).........30 40 53 63 73 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............44 56 61 63 62 RH..............79 45 40 38 43 20 FT WIND......N 4 NE 4 NE 4 NE 4 NE 3 20 FT WIND GUST.7 8 8 8 6 MIX HGT (FT)....1000 2300 4200 4900 5000 TRANSPORT WIND..N 10 NE 8 E 10 E 10 SE 6 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN LATE IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....41. MAX HUMIDITY........88 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTH AROUND 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 600-800 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTH 2 TO 9 MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH LATE. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........77 80 84 85 85 86 WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE RAIN RAIN NONE NONE TEMP............60 52 49 46 45 44 RH..............47 64 74 80 85 78 20 FT WIND......NE 3 NE 2 NE 3 NE 3 N 4 N 4 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (FT)....4200 800 800 700 600 600 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 7 SE 9 SE 9 SE 7 S 2 S 2 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....64. MIN HUMIDITY........35 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MIXING HEIGHT.......600-700 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 6700-7000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS........NORTH 9 TO 12 MPH...INCREASING TO 8 TO 15 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).........87 87 83 77 71 70 WEATHER COV..... S CHC WEATHER TYPE....NONE RAIN NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............43 43 50 58 62 62 RH..............82 84 65 50 45 45 20 FT WIND......N 4 N 5 N 5 NE 5 N 6 NE 4 20 FT WIND GUST.5 10 10 5 MIX HGT (FT)....700 600 600 4500 7000 7000 TRANSPORT WIND..NW 9 N 12 N 12 NE 15 NE 9 NE 9 $$ FORECASTER...ARMSTRONG REQUESTED BY...DREW PAGE TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100317.SAVAN.01/ILM