FNUS73 KAPX 181131
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR KEYSTONE FUEL BREAK...MICHIGAN DNR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
731 AM EDT THU MAR 18 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EDT ON MARCH 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO DEPART AN HOUR OR SO AFTER
IGNITION TIME...ROUGHLY 2PM. THE CLOUDS MAY HOLD OFF ON WARMING AND
SUBSEQUENT MIXING...BEFORE SUN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT MORE SO FOR THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL IN TURN ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE
AND BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY AT THE BURN SITE. IF CLOUDS ARE GONE EARLIER
THEN EXPECT THE TEMP RISES...DEEPER MIXING AND GUSTINESS SOONER.

ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. NO CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT) AROUND IGNITION TIME.
                    TEMPERATURE.........58 AT IGNITION...MAX 63.
                    MIN HUMIDITY........22 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 17 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 6 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...INCREASING TO WEST WINDS 9 MPH WITH GUSTS
                    TO 17 MPH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 18 TO 23 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO 6000 FT AGL
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (900) AT IGNITION. MAX...EXCELLENT
                    (1300).

TIME (EDT)      1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........63     29     28
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............58     63     61
RH..............24     18     19
20 FT WIND......SW 6   SW 9   W 9
20 FT WIND GUST.10     15     17
SMOKE DISP......900    1300   1100

.TONIGHT...

MAX HUMIDITY........85 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 17 TO 23 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 12
                    MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
RH..............21     30     42     55     57     67
20 FT WIND......SW 5   SW 3   W 3    W 2    NW 0   W 1
20 FT WIND GUST.10     5      5      5

$$
FORECASTER...SCOTT DICKSON
REQUESTED BY...STEVE CROSS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100318.KEYST.01/APX