FNUS73 KPAH 172238 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR INAGHE UNITS 7 8...USFS SHAWNEE NF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 538 PM CDT WED MAR 17 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON MARCH 18. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... THIS IS A PROVISIONAL FORECAST ISSUANCE. ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA AND ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED PRIOR TO 6 AM CDT ON MARCH 18TH. AN ADDITIONAL ISSUANCE OF THIS SPOT FORECAST MAY BE REQUIRED AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY TO INCLUDE THE LATEST CHANGES. THIS SPOT FORECAST ASSUMES SIGNIFICANT SUNSHINE AND A DEEPER MIXING LAYER DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. IF TEMPERATURES DO NOT RISE SUFFICIENTLY ON WEDNESDAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER 20S WILL BE REALIZED. SURFACE AND 20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE ROUGHLY PARALLEL WITH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ...THAT IS...NORTH...NORTHWEST AT IGNITION TIME. THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BECOMING DUE WEST BY 5 PM CDT. THE GREATEST DIP IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2PM CDT...THEN REMAIN STEADY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN 5 AND 8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW 1700 FOOT AGL MINIMUMS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AND 9 AM CDT FRIDAY MORNING. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........50 AT IGNITION...MAX 65. MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 23 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTH AT 5 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH BECOMING LIGHT. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 700-2600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5400-5600 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 0 TO 8 MPH. TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............50 54 57 60 61 63 64 63 62 RH..............48 38 33 27 25 23 24 26 29 20 FT WIND DIR..N NW NW NW NW W W W W 20 FT WIND SPD..4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...2.6 3.4 4.1 4.7 5.1 5.4 5.6 5.6 5.5 TRANSP WIND DIR.W W NW N N NW NW NW NW TRANSP WIND SPD.2 5 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 .THURSDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....41. MAX HUMIDITY........86 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3800-5200 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-600 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 13 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 1 TO 2 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TIME (CDT) 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM SKY (%).........MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............59 55 53 51 50 49 48 46 46 45 44 44 RH..............34 42 48 54 59 65 71 76 76 79 82 82 20 FT WIND DIR..W W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...5.2 4.6 3.8 2.9 2.0 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW W W W SW SW SW SW SW S S TRANSP WIND SPD.9 9 10 12 13 13 13 12 8 6 2 1 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....71. MIN HUMIDITY........22 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......600-2500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5300-5600 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 0 TO 7 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 20 TO 26 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............43 45 50 54 58 62 65 67 69 70 69 68 RH..............86 76 59 48 39 32 27 25 22 22 23 24 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 4 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 7 6 20 FT WIND GUST. 5 5 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 1.1 1.8 2.5 3.3 4.0 4.6 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.6 5.5 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW TRANSP WIND SPD.0 1 3 7 10 15 18 20 22 24 25 26 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...SMITH REQUESTED BY...SCOTT CRIST TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100318.INAGH.01/PAH