FNUS76 KMFR 191829 FWSMFR SPOT FORECAST FOR FOREST CREEK M44C...MEDFORD BLM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR 1129 AM PDT FRI MAR 19 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1045 PDT ON MARCH 19. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WINDS CURLING THROUGH THE TERRAIN AT THE BURN SITE THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN LATE THIS MORNING AS THE TEMPERATURE WARMS AND THE MIXING HEIGHT RISES. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO TURN UPSLOPE AT THE BURN SITE...AND A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP ABOVE THE TERRAIN AT ABOUT 1500 TO 2000 FEET. DURING THE AFTERNOON THE MIXING HEIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS THE SURFACE WARMS. UPSLOPE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE PUSHED FROM A NORTHWEST WIND COMING THROUGH THE PASS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE WINDS ABOVE THE TERRAIN WILL LIKELY CARRY THE LIFTING SMOKE EAST-NORTHEAST. TONIGHT A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CAUSE SOUTH WINDS TO BECOME MORE DOMINANT AND AN INVERSION WILL DEVELOP. THIS SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...WITH GOOD MIXING AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH INCREASED HIGH CLOUD COVER. .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY...A FEW HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74. MIN HUMIDITY........20-25 PERCENT. WIND (EYE LEVEL)....NORTH 0-3 MPH THROUGH LATE MORNING...THEN BECOMING UPSLOPE 1-4 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN NORTHWEST 1-4 MPH LATE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO 4000 TO 4500 FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........NORTH 0-5 MPH THROUGH LATE MORNING...THEN BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST 3 TO 8 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45. MAX HUMIDITY........60-70 PERCENT. WIND (EYE LEVEL)....WIND BECOMING SOUTH 0 TO 3 MPH AFTER 7 PM PST. MIXING HEIGHT.......FALLING TO 1500 FT AGL OR LESS BY 7 PM PST...THEN FALLING TO 500 FT AGL OR LESS. MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 3 TO 8 MPH BECOMING. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. FILTERED SUNSHINE...AT -TIMES...DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70. MIN HUMIDITY........23-28 PERCENT. WIND (EYE LEVEL)....SOUTH 1 TO 3 MPH EARLY...INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST 3 TO 6 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 9 TO 14 MPH LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL OR LESS IN THE MORNING...BECOMING 1000 TO 1500 FT AGL LATE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 4500 TO 5500 FT AGL DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 7 TO 12 MPH LATE MORNING...THEN SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT. $$ FORECASTER...LUTZ REQUESTED BY...MIKE APPLING ANDY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100319.FORES.02/MFR