FNUS73 KPAH 190102 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR STATE OF IL 50 58...USFS SHAWNEE NF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 802 PM CDT THU MAR 18 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON MARCH 19. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... THIS A PROVISIONAL SPOT FORECAST. LATER DATA AND AN ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED PRIOR TO THE IGNITION TIME OF THIS FORECAST. AN UPDATE TO THIS SPOT FORECAST MAY BE REQUIRED. SHOULD THE PRESCRIBED BURN CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY...THE PERIOD FROM 130 PM CDT THROUGH 430 PM CDT MAY PRODUCE WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONDITIONS CLOSE TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS CONTINGENT ON FUEL CONDITIONS...MAINLY DUE TO WIND GUSTS. MIXING HEIGHTS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FALL BELOW THE 1700 FOOT AGL MINIMUMS BY 1 AM CDT. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........53 AT IGNITION...MAX 71. MIN HUMIDITY........52 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 27 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 10 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5300-6500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 22 MPH. TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........CLR CLR CLR CLR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............53 57 61 65 67 69 70 69 68 RH..............52 43 38 33 30 27 26 27 31 20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 6 6 7 8 8 8 7 20 FT WIND GUST. 10 10 10 10 15 15 15 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...3.1 3.9 4.7 5.3 5.8 6.2 6.4 6.5 6.4 TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW TRANSP WIND SPD.18 17 16 15 16 17 18 21 22 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 .FRIDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....46. MAX HUMIDITY........77 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH BECOMING LIGHT. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4700-6100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 800-1400 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 24 TO 30 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM SKY (%).........MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR PC PC PC PC MC MC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............65 61 59 57 55 54 53 51 50 48 48 47 RH..............34 39 44 47 51 50 52 63 66 77 74 76 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...6.1 5.5 4.7 3.8 2.9 2.0 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW TRANSP WIND SPD.24 25 26 28 28 29 29 30 30 30 30 29 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....62. MIN HUMIDITY........48 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 32 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1300-3000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2700-4300 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 2200 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 21 TO 29 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST 16 TO 18 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC CDY CDY CDY CDY WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............47 48 51 53 55 57 58 59 60 61 60 59 RH..............76 77 68 66 61 57 53 51 47 46 46 45 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S SW SW SW W W NW N 20 FT WIND SPD..3 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.3 1.8 2.4 3.0 3.6 4.1 4.3 4.2 3.8 3.3 2.7 2.2 TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W NW N TRANSP WIND SPD.29 28 28 26 25 24 23 22 21 18 17 16 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 30 30 30 30 30 30 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 $$ FORECASTER...SMITH REQUESTED BY...SCOTT CRIST TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100319.STATE.01/PAH