FNUS73 KPAH 182220 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR VANCIL HOLLOW...MO DEPT OF NATURAL RESOURCES/ DIV OF STATE PARKS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 520 PM CDT THU MAR 18 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 CDT ON MARCH 19. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... THIS A PROVISIONAL SPOT FORECAST. LATER DATA AND AN ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED PRIOR TO THE IGNITION TIME OF THIS FORECAST. AN UPDATE TO THIS SPOT FORECAST MAY BE REQUIRED. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........57 AT IGNITION...MAX 70. MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 28 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHWEST AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. MIXING HEIGHT.......600-2100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3500 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 2800-4200 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 3100-4800 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 1400-2200 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 18 MPH INCREASING TO 20 TO 22 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........CLR CLR CLR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............57 61 64 66 68 69 68 67 RH..............43 37 31 29 27 27 28 31 20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 6 6 7 7 7 6 20 FT WIND GUST. 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...3.5 4.2 4.8 4.5 3.9 3.1 2.2 1.4 TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW TRANSP WIND SPD.14 15 16 17 18 20 21 22 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 .FRIDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....46. MAX HUMIDITY........80 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 21 TO 30 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 15 TO 17 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TIME (CDT) 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM SKY (%).........MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR PC PC PC PC MC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............64 61 58 56 55 54 53 51 50 49 48 48 RH..............35 41 47 51 53 52 52 66 66 76 77 77 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..6 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW S TRANSP WIND SPD.23 25 26 28 29 30 30 28 24 21 17 15 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....65. MIN HUMIDITY........46 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......800-2700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3900-5800 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 4900-6400 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 3100-4000 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14 TO 23 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 13 TO 16 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC MC CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............47 49 52 54 57 59 61 62 63 64 63 62 RH..............81 77 73 69 61 56 50 49 45 44 44 44 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S SW SW SW W NW 20 FT WIND SPD..3 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...0.8 1.6 2.7 3.9 5.0 5.8 6.4 6.2 5.6 4.9 4.0 3.1 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S SW S SW S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.14 15 17 20 23 25 26 24 22 20 16 13 CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 30 30 30 30 30 30 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 $$ FORECASTER...SMITH REQUESTED BY...DENISE DOWLING TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100319.VANCI.01/PAH