FNUS73 KPAH 201358 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR STATE OF IL 50 58...USFS SHAWNEE NF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 858 AM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0910 CDT ON MARCH 20. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... THE COLD FRONT IS NEARLY ON TOP OF YOUR LOCATION AND SHOULD MOVE THROUGH AROUND NOON CDT. THIS WILL CAUSE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST BY 2PM CDT. THESE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW 2000 FT. ABOVE THAT...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE. EXPECT THE RAIN TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT...ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. THE EFFECT OF THIS WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BEGIN AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GREATER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE A RAINY SUNDAY FOR THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE REGION...AS A WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN ROTATES NORTH INTO THE AREA. THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT DECREASE IN COVERAGE BY MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AND LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE.........52 AT IGNITION...MAX 61. MIN HUMIDITY........71 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 60 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHWEST AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE BECOMING NORTHEAST 6 TO 8 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT INCREASING TO 15 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 3. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 300-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 1600-3300 FT AGL IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 1000 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 17 TO 24 MPH DECREASING TO 8 TO 16 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN DECREASING TO AROUND 5 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............50 52 54 56 57 58 59 60 59 58 RH..............71 69 69 66 64 64 62 60 62 64 20 FT WIND DIR..W NW N N N NE NE NE NE NE 20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 4 2 2 3 5 6 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST. 10 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 MIX HGT (KFT)...1.3 2.0 2.6 3.0 3.3 3.1 2.7 2.2 1.6 1.0 TRANSP WIND DIR.SW W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SE TRANSP WIND SPD.12 8 10 14 16 13 8 5 5 6 CWR.............0 0 0 0 20 20 20 20 20 20 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....41. MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CWR.................45 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......100-500 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 8 TO 16 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 17 TO 21 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TIME (CDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY CLOUDY WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP............56 51 48 46 44 42 RH..............69 83 89 93 96 100 20 FT WIND......NE 5 NE 4 NE 4 E 4 NE 6 NE 7 20 FT WIND GUST.10 5 5 5 10 15 MIX HGT (FT)....500 200 200 300 100 100 TRANSPORT WIND..SE 8 E 14 E 18 E 21 NE 18 NE 17 CWR.............40 40 40 50 50 50 HAINES INDEX....2 3 3 2 2 2 $$ FORECASTER...SPODEN REQUESTED BY...SCOTT CRIST TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100320.STATE.02/PAH