FNUS73 KAPX 231431 FWSAPX SPOT FORECAST FOR MACK LAKE FUELBREAKS...USDA FOREST SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1031 AM EDT TUE MAR 23 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1035 EDT ON MARCH 23. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY TODAY...WITH HUMIDITIES BOTTOMING OUT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST...BUT HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES THURSDAY...WITH MORE BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS. HOWEVER...COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY RESULT IN HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (0-20 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........39 AT IGNITION...MAX 51. MIN HUMIDITY........54 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 24 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTH AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 8 TO 13 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 200-1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2400-4200 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (100) AT IGNITION. MAX...FAIR (200). TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........20 20 20 20 0 0 0 0 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............36 39 42 46 48 50 51 51 RH..............46 43 37 31 28 25 24 24 20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N N NW 20 FT WIND SPD..6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX....3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 SMOKE DISP......100 100 200 200 200 200 200 200 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....28. MAX HUMIDITY........85 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 7 TO 9 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 300-1000 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HAINES INDEX........MIN 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MIN POOR(0). TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........14 32 32 32 32 32 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............48 40 38 36 34 31 RH..............26 36 46 57 66 75 20 FT WIND......NW 5 NW 3 NW 1 NW 1 NW 3 NW 5 20 FT WIND GUST. 5 5 10 HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5 5 5 SMOKE DISP......100 0 0 0 0 0 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). MAX TEMPERATURE.....50. MIN HUMIDITY........25 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 16 MPH INCREASING TO 14 TO 21 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4200-5000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........MAX 5. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....MAX EXCELLENT(700). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM SKY (%).........28 46 46 35 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............28 31 42 49 RH..............85 72 41 26 20 FT WIND......NW 6G15 NW 7G15 NW 8G20 NW 9G20 HAINES INDEX....5 4 3 5 SMOKE DISP......0 100 500 700 $$ FORECASTER...KEVIN SULLIVAN REQUESTED BY...MICAH JOHNSON TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100323.MACKL.02/APX