FNUS74 KOUN 231317
FWSOUN

SPOT FORECAST FOR BLACK KETTLE UNIT 81...FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
817 AM CDT TUE MAR 23 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON MARCH 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE TROUGH IN FAR NORTHWEST OK AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS MAY SAG A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING BACK
TO THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT SURFACE WINDS COULD BE
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON... STARTING OUT FROM THE
SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING... VEERING TO THE WEST... AND POSSIBLY EVEN
TO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING... AND BACK TO THE SOUTH BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT LESS WHEN THE DIRECTION
HAS A WESTERLY COMPONENT. MEANWHILE... WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SURFACE
MOISTURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME CONCERN FOR INCREASED WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON DURING TIMES THAT WINDS ARE GUSTY. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE IN THE DAY CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. LIGHTER
WINDS AND MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES ON SATURDAY. STRONG SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOLLOWED BY
STRONG NORTH WINDS INTO SUNDAY.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68.
MIN HUMIDITY........27 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 9 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4700-5100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 2 TO 8 MPH.

TIME (CDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM   8 PM
SKY (%).........PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  MCLDY
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............45     58     65     67     67     61
RH..............58     36     28     27     29     42
20 FT WIND......S 9    S 8    S 8    S 9    SE 9   E 7
20 FT WIND GUST.15     15     15     15     15     10
MIX HGT (FT)....500    1400   2700   4000   5100   3600
MIX HGT (M).....150    430    820    1220   1550   1100
TRANSPORT WIND..W 7    SW 3   S 3    S 8    S 8    SE 7
TRAN WIND (M/S).W 3    SW 1   S 1    S 4    S 4    SE 3

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 42.
MAX HUMIDITY........93 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY
                    AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 54.
MIN HUMIDITY........57 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 8 TO 14 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-2300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 18 TO 24 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...SOHL
REQUESTED BY...BRYAN HAJNY
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100323.BLACK.01/OUN