FNUS74 KLZK 011219 FWSLZK SPOT FORECAST FOR SHAMSHIRE...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 719 AM CDT THU APR 1 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0705 CDT ON APRIL 01. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING... .DISCUSSION... BREEZY SOUTH WINDS...COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND LOW FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST RH VALUES OF 30 TO 35 PERCENT...COMBINED WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 25 MPH WILL CREATE CONDITIONS WHERE THE SPREAD OF WILD FIRES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH CONTROLLED BURNS HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO GET OUT OF HAND. WHILE A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOT IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME...THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST DATA WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WITH RED FLAG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. IF RH VALUES DROP LOWER...OR TEMPERATURES WARM MORE THAN EXPECTED...A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. A QUICK MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT IN TO SATURDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS ARKANSAS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG...POSSIBLY SEVERE. DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........64 AT IGNITION...MAX 81. MIN HUMIDITY........78 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 34 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT. WIND (EYE LEVEL)....SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTH 24 TO 33 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 36 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......BECOMING 3600 FT MSL. STABILITY CLASS.....2. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 6 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC MC PC PC PC PC PC PC WEATHER COV.....NONE. WEATHER TYPE....NONE. TEMP............64 66 68 70 73 75 77 79 80 81 81 80 RH..............78 70 63 56 51 46 41 38 35 34 35 35 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..8 10 12 12 13 14 14 14 14 14 13 12 20 FT WIND GUST.20 25 25 25 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 25 EYE LVL WND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S EYE LVL WND SPD.5 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 EYE LVL WND GST.10 13 13 13 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 MIX HGT (KFT)... TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.24 24 24 26 28 30 31 32 33 36 37 35 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....58. MAX HUMIDITY........79 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT. WIND (EYE LEVEL)....SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 9 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTH 29 TO 38 MPH. STABILITY CLASS.....4. TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY WEATHER COV.....NONE. WEATHER TYPE....NONE. TEMP............80 74 69 64 61 59 RH..............35 43 52 62 70 75 EYE LVL WND DIR.S S S S S S EYE LVL WND SPD.7 7 7 7 7 7 EYE LVL WND GST.13 8 8 8 8 8 TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.37 38 37 35 32 30 CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....72. MIN HUMIDITY........56 PERCENT. CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT. WIND (EYE LEVEL)....SOUTH WINDS 8 TO 14 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS........SOUTH 28 TO 37 MPH INCREASING TO 38 TO 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......BECOMING 3900 FT MSL. STABILITY CLASS.....3. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 18 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. TIME (CDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY WEATHER COV..... S CHC CHANCE LIKELY WEATHER TYPE....NONE TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM TEMP............59 62 66 71 RH..............78 74 67 59 20 FT WIND......S 10G15 S 14G30 S 17G35 S 18G35 EYE LVL WND DIR.S S S S EYE LVL WND SPD.6 8 10 11 EYE LVL WND GST.8 15 18 18 MIX HGT (FT).... TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S TRANSP WIND SPD.28 31 38 40 CHC OF PCPN (%).10 20 40 60 $$ FORECASTER...M TREXLER REQUESTED BY...DOUG NELSON TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100401.SHAMS.01/LZK