FNUS73 KDVN 021719
FWSDVN

SPOT FORECAST FOR MSU...PORT LOUISA NWR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1219 PM CDT FRI APR 2 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 CDT ON APRIL 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS DUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.  AHEAD
OF THIS COLD FRONT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
A LEADING AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA AT THIS TIME...WITH TRAILING ACTIVITY BACK INTO
MISSOURI.  IF CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE...STORMS MAY
APPROACH THE BURN SITE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON.  SOME OF
THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    TEMPERATURE.........75 AT IGNITION...MAX 78.
                    MIN HUMIDITY........52 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 48 PERCENT.
WIND (EYE LEVEL)....WINDS SOUTH AT 22 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE
                    SOUTH WINDS 13 TO 22 MPH.
WIND SHIFT..........WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND VARIABLE AROUND
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 60 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................4
HAINES INDEX........5 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 2.
                    OR...MODERATE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON FOR
                    LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200-6900 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 26 TO 35 MPH INCREASING TO 31 TO 36 MPH
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.

TIME (CDT)      1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............75     76     76
RH..............52     50     50
EYE LEVEL WIND..190/22 180/21 180/20
EYE LEVEL WIND..30     30     30
HAINES INDEX....4      3      3

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    EVENING. OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE
                    NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49.
MAX HUMIDITY........80 PERCENT.
WIND (EYE LEVEL)....SOUTH WINDS 12 TO 20 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 7
                    TO 14 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
WIND SHIFT..........WIND GUSTY AND VARIABLE AROUND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
                    THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE WINDS SHIFTING WEST
                    WITH A FRONT DUE TO MOVE THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CWR.................80 PERCENT.
LAL.................5 DURING THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200-4000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1500-2100 FT AGL
                    IN THE OVERNIGHT.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 31 TO 33 MPH BECOMING WEST 18 TO 26 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST 12 TO 15 MPH OVERNIGHT.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
                    MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....61.
MIN HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT.
WIND (EYE LEVEL)....WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
WIND SHIFT..........NONE.
CWR.................30 PERCENT DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2300-4100 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5000-6500 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 15 TO 20 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...LE
REQUESTED BY...ERIK ACKER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100402.MSU__.01/DVN