FNUS71 KBGM 041557 FWSBGM SPOT FORECAST FOR MONTEZUMA WILDFIRE...US FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1157 AM EDT SUN APR 4 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1134 EDT ON APRIL 04. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT HAS BROUGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR TO THE AREA TODAY. 20 FT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN FROM NORTHWESTERLY TODAY TO NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT AND TURN THROUGH THE EAST AS THEY TURN SOUTHERLY TOMORROW. THEY WILL ALSO BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN TOMORROW TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW AND WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA TOMORROW. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL JUST TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY...KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...TUESDAY WILL ALSO SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER WINDS. HUMIDITY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS ON TUESDAY. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 43. MAX HUMIDITY........86 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 9 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIXING HEIGHT.......6200 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300-400 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 14 MPH...INCREASING TO 21 TO 29 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (18100-32000 KNOT-FT). WIND (EYE LEVEL)....NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 9 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............8 10 13 15 15 29 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................63 58 52 50 47 45 MIN HUMIDITY........34 42 50 56 65 70 WIND (20 FT)........NE 2 E 2 SE 2 SE 4 S 5 S 6 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 5 10 10 10 WIND (EYE LEVEL)....NE 1 E 1 SE 2 SE 3 S 4 S 4 EYE LVL WND GST.....5 5 5 10 10 10 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........4 4 4 4 4 4 VRATE KT-FT/1000....32 32 32 32 18 18 .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69. MIN HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 18 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 6000 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 29 TO 37 MPH. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (18100 KNOT-FT)...INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (76300 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND (EYE LEVEL)....SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 18 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............48 65 63 59 57 52 WEATHER COV......... CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP................43 47 54 62 67 69 MIN HUMIDITY........82 76 66 56 52 49 WIND (20 FT)........S 6 S 6 S 7 SW 15 SW 16 SW 15 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 15 15 15 15 WIND (EYE LEVEL)....S 5 S 5 S 5 SW 5 SW 5 SW 5 EYE LVL WND GST.....15 15 15 15 15 15 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........4 5 5 3 3 3 VRATE KT-FT/1000....18 18 18 18 76 76 .MONDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 49. MAX HUMIDITY........89 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 14 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE. MIXING HEIGHT.......6100 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 400-1200 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 25 TO 31 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 12 TO 20 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (76300 KNOT-FT)...DECREASING TO FAIR (14700 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND (EYE LEVEL)....SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 14 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............45 40 46 55 61 64 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................67 62 58 55 52 50 MIN HUMIDITY........50 54 59 66 77 83 WIND (20 FT)........W 6 W 6 SW 5 SW 4 SW 2 SW 3 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 10 10 10 5 5 WIND (EYE LEVEL)....W 5 W 4 SW 4 SW 3 SW 2 SW 2 EYE LVL WND GST.....15 10 10 10 5 5 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........3 2 2 3 3 3 VRATE KT-FT/1000....76 76 76 76 15 15 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75. MIN HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 14 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3400 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN DECREASING TO 1300 FT AGL LATE. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH...INCREASING TO 31 TO 35 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (14700-41700 KNOT-FT). WIND (EYE LEVEL)....SOUTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 14 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............68 71 65 57 51 49 WEATHER COV.........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP................49 50 59 68 73 75 MIN HUMIDITY........89 86 62 47 41 40 WIND (20 FT)........S 4 S 5 S 6 SW 10 SW 14 SW 8 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 10 15 15 15 15 WIND (EYE LEVEL)....S 3 S 4 S 5 SW 6 SW 7 SW 6 EYE LVL WND GST.....5 10 15 15 15 15 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 3 3 VRATE KT-FT/1000....15 15 15 15 42 42 $$ FORECASTER...IPPOLITI REQUESTED BY...BILL STEWART DEPUTY REFUGE MANAGER TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20100404.MONTE.01/BGM