FNUS73 KAPX 051358
FWSAPX

SPOT FORECAST FOR SOUTHBRANCH BLOCK 5 S...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
958 AM EDT MON APR 5 2010

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1500 EDT ON APRIL 05.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...SHOULD BE A GREAT DAY FOR A SPOT BURN WITH OVERALL
CONDITIONS QUITE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF YESTERDAY. INITIAL WEST/
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING WILL VEER MORE WESTERLY BY
IGNITION TIME AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY WITHIN WELL MIXED LOWER
ATMOSPHERE. THIS MIXING WILL ALSO ALLOW MINIMUM HUMIDITIES TO DIP
JUST UNDER 25 PERCENT...THOUGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO HOLD JUST BELOW CRITICAL VALUES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY
BY 8PM WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS BY EARLY EVENING HERALDING
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
                    TEMPERATURE.........70 AT IGNITION...MAX 72.
                    MIN HUMIDITY........25 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 24 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 12 TO 15 MPH...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
                    OF 20 TO 24 MPH INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14 TO 20 MPH INCREASING TO WEST
                    24 TO 33 MPH AROUND IGNITION TIME.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4600-5100 FT AGL THROUGH EARLY EVENING...
                    DIMINISHING TO 500-800 FT AGL BY 10 PM.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 5.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (2500) AT IGNITION.
                    MAX...EXCELLENT (2500).

TIME (EDT)      3PM  4PM  5PM  6PM  7PM  8PM  9PM  10P
SKY (%).........8    8    24   24   24   65   65   65
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............70   69   67   43   42   43   45   48
RH..............25   24   26   29   34   41   45   51
20 FT WIND DIR..W    W    W    W    W    W    W    W
20 FT WIND SPD..13   13   12   10   7    6    3    2
20 FT WIND GUST.30   30   30   25   15   10   5    5
HAINES INDEX....5    5    5    5    5    5    4    4
SMOKE DISP......2500 2300 1800 1500 1400 1200

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
                    LATE IN THE EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....41.
MAX HUMIDITY........86 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS TO 20
                    MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.


.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (95-100 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN
                    THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
                    AFTERNOON. A THUNDERSTORM ALSO POSSIBLE.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....53.
MIN HUMIDITY........71 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 6 TO 8 MPH IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.


$$
FORECASTER...DAVID LAWRENCE
REQUESTED BY...BEN EBY
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20100405.SOUTH.01/APX