FNUS71 KBGM 050852 FWSBGM SPOT FORECAST FOR BUCK HILL STATE FOREST...NYS FOREST RANGERS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 452 AM EDT MON APR 5 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON APRIL 05. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... BREEZY SOUTHWEST 20 FOOT WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY MID MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 MPH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTY CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH REMAINING POSSIBLE. THE FRONT MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF SHOWER. BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL CALM WEAKEN AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO COOL. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN STALL ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT). ISOLATED SPRINKLES EARLY IN THE MORNING THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68. MIN HUMIDITY........38 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 17 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 6200-6600 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 24 TO 28 MPH...INCREASING TO WEST 36 TO 41 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (23000 KNOT-FT)...INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (102400 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (EDT) 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM SKY (%).............64 69 67 57 WEATHER COV.........ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP................55 63 67 68 MIN HUMIDITY........49 39 40 47 WIND (20 FT)........S 9 SW 13 SW 15 W 10 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 20 20 15 LAL.................1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........3 3 2 3 VRATE KT-FT/1000....23 23 102 102 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 43. MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6600 FT AGL...DECREASING TO LESS THAN 150 FT AGL OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 28 TO 37 MPH...DECREASING TO 21 TO 23 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (102400 KNOT-FT)...DECREASING TO FAIR (14200 KNOT-FT) AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............52 44 44 45 45 52 WEATHER COV.........SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................66 59 54 51 47 45 MIN HUMIDITY........50 64 74 77 86 89 WIND (20 FT)........W 7 W 6 W 4 W 4 W 4 SW 3 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 8 7 6 5 5 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 2 3 3 VRATE KT-FT/1000....102 102 102 102 14 14 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62. MIN HUMIDITY........62 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2400-2600 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 21 TO 26 MPH. LAL.................1. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (14200 KNOT-FT). TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............60 66 71 77 82 78 WEATHER COV......... SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD WEATHER TYPE........NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP................43 44 51 57 61 62 MIN HUMIDITY........100 100 80 69 65 62 WIND (20 FT)........S 2 SE 2 E 2 E 3 NE 3 NE 3 20 FT WIND GUST.....5 5 5 5 5 5 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........4 4 4 3 3 3 VRATE KT-FT/1000....14 14 14 14 36 36 $$ FORECASTER...GITRO REQUESTED BY...JIM PRUNOSKE TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100405.BUCKH.01/BGM