FNUS73 KEAX 051248 FWSEAX SPOT FORECAST FOR BLUFF POOL...USFWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 748 AM CDT MON APR 5 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CDT ON APRIL 05. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... THIS MORNING...A WARM FRONT WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT...WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY THROUGH THE MORNING WHILE INCREASING IN SPEED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING WITH THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK AND GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH WIND DIRECTION SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT INTO FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG WITH RAPIDLY GREENING VEGETATION...PRECLUDING A HIGHER FIRE DANGER... A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED RISK WILL EXIST DUE TO GUSTY SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND IOWA TONIGHT...THE THE RAIN SHIELD POSSIBLY SKIRTING ALONG THE BORDER COUNTIES TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...LIKELY BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS AND EXTENSIVE RAINFALL TO THE ENTIRE AREA. DRIER YET COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH BETTER PROSPECTS FOR SCHEDULED BURNING RETURNING BY THE END OF THE WEEK. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79. MIN HUMIDITY........44 PERCENT. CWR.................40 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 16 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4800-6200 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 8 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 18 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO SOUTH 28 TO 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........89 89 88 88 84 77 73 71 67 WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............58 62 67 72 72 73 74 75 76 RH..............56 52 48 44 47 49 52 55 58 20 FT WIND DIR..E E SE SE SE SE S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..12 14 16 18 18 18 18 17 16 20 FT WIND GUST.15 20 25 25 30 30 30 25 25 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64. MAX HUMIDITY........88 PERCENT. CWR.................40 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1900-3800 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1300 FT AGL EARLY IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 36 MPH DECREASING TO 22 TO 26 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. TIME (CDT) 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM SKY (%).........65 67 70 74 78 81 83 81 78 74 70 67 WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............76 74 72 70 69 68 68 67 66 65 65 64 RH..............61 64 69 72 75 77 79 81 83 85 86 88 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 20 FT WIND GUST.20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77. MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT. CWR.................30 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 13 TO 22 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1300-2800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3500 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 25 MPH INCREASING TO 30 TO 38 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........65 65 66 67 68 69 69 70 73 75 78 80 WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............64 64 66 69 71 72 74 75 76 77 76 74 RH..............89 86 79 72 67 62 58 55 52 50 51 53 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD..16 17 20 21 22 22 22 22 21 20 16 13 20 FT WIND GUST.25 25 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 25 15 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 $$ FORECASTER...DEROCHE REQUESTED BY...SAM VANOURNEY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100405.BLUFF.01/EAX