FNUS73 KEAX 051228 FWSEAX SPOT FORECAST FOR SHCMIDT TRACT...USFWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 728 AM CDT MON APR 5 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 CDT ON APRIL 05. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... THIS MORNING...A WARM FRONT WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT...WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY THROUGH THE MORNING WHILE INCREASING IN SPEED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING WITH THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT INTO FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG WITH RAPIDLY GREENING VEGETATION...PRECLUDING A HIGHER FIRE DANGER... A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED RISK WILL EXIST DUE TO GUSTY SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND IOWA TONIGHT...THE THE RAIN SHIELD POSSIBLY SKIRTING ALONG THE BORDER COUNTIES TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...LIKELY BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS AND EXTENSIVE RAINFALL TO THE ENTIRE AREA. DRIER YET COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH BETTER PROSPECTS FOR SCHEDULED BURNING RETURNING BY THE END OF THE WEEK. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80. MIN HUMIDITY........53 PERCENT. CWR.................20 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 15 TO 16 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1800 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4900-6000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 6 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHEAST 16 TO 23 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND 29 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CDT) 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........68 74 68 66 65 64 63 WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............67 72 73 74 74 75 76 RH..............58 53 54 56 57 59 60 20 FT WIND DIR..SE SE SE S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..13 14 15 15 16 16 16 20 FT WIND GUST.15 20 20 20 25 25 25 HAINES INDEX....4 3 3 3 3 3 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64. MAX HUMIDITY........86 PERCENT. CWR.................10 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 14 TO 16 MPH. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 13 TO 18 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 6AM SKY (%).........63 64 65 66 67 68 69 69 69 70 70 70 WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............77 75 73 71 70 69 68 67 67 66 65 65 RH..............62 65 70 74 76 78 80 81 83 84 85 86 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD..15 15 15 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 15 16 20 FT WIND GUST.25 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 25 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78. MIN HUMIDITY........58 PERCENT. CWR.................30 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 17 TO 23 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1400-2900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3500 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 32 TO 41 MPH. TIME (CDT) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM SKY (%).........70 70 70 70 69 69 69 70 73 75 77 80 WEATHER COV.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP............65 65 67 70 72 73 75 76 77 78 77 75 RH..............86 85 79 74 69 65 62 60 59 58 59 63 20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S SW SW SW SW S 20 FT WIND SPD..17 18 21 22 23 23 23 23 22 22 21 21 20 FT WIND GUST.25 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 $$ FORECASTER...DEROCHE REQUESTED BY...SAM VANOURNEY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100405.SHCMI.01/EAX