FNUS72 KMHX 060929 FWSMHX SPOT FORECAST FOR OREBS-CJL-POCOSIN...NCDFR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 527 AM EDT TUE APR 6 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0515 EDT ON APRIL 06. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... BERMUDA HIGH-TYPE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SW WINDS OVER LOCATION TODAY BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY AFTER 3 PM. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL LIKELY PRODUCE TEMPS 3 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER AT BURN SITE COMPARED TO SANDY RUN RAWS. WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS...FAVORABLE. SOME JETTING BELOW INVERSION EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH MAY RESULT IN GUSTINESS WHEN INVERSION BREAKS. BURN-OFF TEMP FCST OF 75 DEGREES...AROUND 11 AM. GENERAL SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH WED...WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRES INLAND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THU AND CROSS THE REGION FRI. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 82. MIN HUMIDITY........46 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 6 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......250 FT AGL EARLY...INCREASING TO 4000 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 15 MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 20 MPH LATE. TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............18 17 16 15 13 12 10 8 7 9 12 13 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........ TEMP................60 60 62 66 70 75 78 79 81 82 81 80 MIN HUMIDITY........96 96 93 78 68 55 50 49 47 46 47 51 20 FT WIND DIR......SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD (MPH)7 8 8 9 10 12 13 14 15 15 14 14 20 FT WIND GUST..... 10 10 10 15 15 15 20 20 20 20 15 HAINES INDEX........4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 6 MIXING HEIGHT....... 250 1500 4000 2400 TRNSPT WIND......... SW 15 SW 14 SW 14 SW 21 ADI................. 11 23 38 44 LVORI............... 5 2 1 1 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62. MAX HUMIDITY........84 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH. HAINES INDEX........5 TO 6 OR OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 250 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 13 TO 20 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).............15 18 20 21 22 22 23 24 25 25 25 25 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........ TEMP................78 77 73 72 70 68 68 67 66 65 65 64 MIN HUMIDITY........54 56 64 66 71 76 76 78 81 84 81 84 20 FT WIND DIR......SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD (MPH)13 12 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX........6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 MIXING HEIGHT....... 250 250 250 250 TRNSPT WIND......... SW 15 SW 14 SW 20 SW 15 ADI................. 10 9 13 10 LVORI............... 3 4 4 5 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 82. MIN HUMIDITY........52 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......250 FT AGL EARLY...INCREASING TO 4000 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 13 TO 24 MPH. TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............25 25 25 23 20 17 14 11 10 11 14 17 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........ TEMP................63 63 65 68 71 75 77 78 79 81 81 78 MIN HUMIDITY........87 87 81 73 68 60 56 54 52 52 52 56 20 FT WIND DIR......SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD (MPH)7 7 7 8 9 12 13 14 15 15 14 14 20 FT WIND GUST..... 10 15 15 15 20 20 20 20 15 HAINES INDEX........5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 MIXING HEIGHT....... 250 1600 4000 2500 TRNSPT WIND......... SW 15 SW 16 SW 16 S 24 ADI................. 11 27 45 53 LVORI............... 5 3 1 1 $$ FORECASTER...MERRELL REQUESTED BY...GARY CURCIO TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100406.OREBS.02/MHX