FNUS71 KCTP 072206 FWSCTP SPOT FORECAST FOR BLAIRS VALLEY ROAD...BOF, FD2, BUCHANAN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 606 PM EDT WED APR 7 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1754 EDT ON APRIL 07. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE. ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING... .DISCUSSION... DEWPOITNS HAVE INCREASED A COUPLE OF DEGREES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS FOR MANY WESTERN/CENTRAL LOCATIONS OF PA...HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 30 PCT. A CONTINUED RECOVERY TO AROUND 40 PCT RH IS EXPECTED BY 7PM EDT. THE HEATING OF THE DAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A BREEZY/GUSTY SW WIND OF 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25KTS WILL DROP THE RH/S IN THE EAST DOWN TO OR BELOW 30PCT AND KEEP THE WESTERN RH/S RIGHT AT 30PCT. FUEL MOISTURES ARE AT OR BELOW 6 PCT. THIS COMBINATION HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF THE AREA THROUGH 7 PM EDT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THURSDAY MORNING IN THE WEST AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND THURS MORNING...AND THE WETTING OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE THE THREAT OF RAPID FIRE GROWTH...EXCEPT OVER THE EASTERN .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62. MAX HUMIDITY........63 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 14 MPH. LAL.................NO TSTMS. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9 TO 16 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 3 TO 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............28 32 39 44 48 48 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................80 76 74 72 68 65 MIN HUMIDITY........34 40 43 46 52 59 WIND (20 FT)........SW 14 SW 9 SW 8 SW 9 SW 8 SW 6 20 FT WIND GUST.....20 15 10 15 10 10 TRANSPORT WINDS.....SW 16 W 5 SW 3 SW 5 SW 5 S 5 CHC OF PCPN (%).....0 0 0 0 0 0 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........6 5 5 5 5 5 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY...THEN BECOMING CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 76. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 13 TO 18 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE. LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 1400...THEN >25 STRIKES UNTIL 1600...THEN 16-25 STRIKES. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 2 TO 10 MPH...INCREASING TO 23 TO 24 MPH. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. CHANCE OF PCPN......90 PERCENT. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............48 48 58 58 88 93 WEATHER COV......... S CHC S CHC DEFNTE DEFNTE WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP................62 66 70 73 76 72 WIND (20 FT)........SW 6 SW 7 SW 10 SW 12 SW 13 W 16 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 15 15 15 TRANSPORT WINDS.....S 3 S 3 S 7 S 12 S 16 S 23 CHC OF PCPN (%).....0 0 20 20 80 90 LAL.................1 1 1 1 5 5 HAINES INDEX........5 4 4 4 5 5 $$ FORECASTER...BEACHLER REQUESTED BY...JAMES SMITH TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20100407.BLAIR.01/CTP