FNUS71 KCTP 071046 FWSCTP SPOT FORECAST FOR RNG 35...ARMY NATIONAL GUARD NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 646 AM EDT WED APR 7 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON APRIL 07. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE. ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING... .DISCUSSION... MR HENRY...AS WE DISCUSSED ON THE PHONE...THE FORECAST CONDITIONS TODAY DO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING...AS RH/S SHOULD DIP BELOW 30 PCT FOR 1-2 HRS THIS AFTN. THE WINDS ARE ALREADY AT 0630 LOCAL GUSTING OVER 20KTS ON THE RIDGES...DESPITE THE CALM CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS AT THIS TIME. YESTERDAY/S CONDITIONS WERE NOT QUITE RED-FLAG WORTHY AT KMUI...NOR THE REST OF THE AREA...WITH INFREQUENT GUSTS TO/OVER 20 MPH AND RH THAT ONLY DIPPED TO 33 PCT LATE IN THE DAY. YOU SHOULD HAVE AN EARLY TIME TODAY WHEN THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT...BUT THIS IS DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION THIS MORNING...AND MIXING CAN TAKE PLACE RAPIDLY AS THE SUN RISES AND HEATS THE LAND UP FROM THE CURRENTLY WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMP READINGS. GENERAL DISCUSSION FOLLOWS DEWPOINTS HAVE INCHED UPWARD OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS OVER WESTERN PA...BUT RH/S STILL AT OR BELOW 30 PCT OVER THE ENTIRE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. WHILE A CONTINUED RECOVERY TO AROUND 40 PCT RH IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING IN THE WEST...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH TODAY. THE HEATING OF THE DAY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A BREEZY/GUSTY SW WIND OF 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25KTS WILL DROP THE RH/S IN THE EAST DOWN TO OR BELOW 30PCT AND KEEP THE WESTERN RH/S RIGHT AT 30PCT. FUEL MOISTURES ARE AT OR BELOW 6 PCT. THIS COMBINATION HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY FOR ALL OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THURSDAY MORNING IN THE WEST AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WED NIGHT AND THURS MORNING...AND THE WETTING OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE THE THREAT OF RAPID FIRE GROWTH...EXCEPT OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES...WHERE THE TIMING OF THE FRONT LATE IN THE DAY MAY ALLOW FOR DIURNAL HEATING TO DROP RH/S AGAIN TOWARD 30PCT BEFORE ANY RAIN FALLS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 85. MIN HUMIDITY........28 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............7 7 7 8 8 10 12 14 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........ TEMP................70 74 76 78 80 82 84 81 MIN HUMIDITY........42 37 34 32 30 29 28 32 20 FT WIND DIR......W W W W W W SW SW 20 FT WIND SPD......12 13 14 15 15 15 14 13 20 FT WIND GUST.....15 15 20 20 20 20 20 20 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 59. MAX HUMIDITY........71 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).............16 19 28 36 43 43 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................79 74 71 69 67 64 MIN HUMIDITY........36 46 52 58 61 68 WIND (20 FT)........SW 12 SW 9 SW 10 SW 12 SW 10 SW 8 20 FT WIND GUST.....25 10 15 10 .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 81. MIN HUMIDITY........35 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............43 50 50 50 87 87 WEATHER COV......... LIKELY LIKELY WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP................61 63 69 74 77 80 MIN HUMIDITY........74 68 53 43 37 35 WIND (20 FT)........SW 6 S 6 S 9 S 12 SW 12 W 10 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 10 10 15 15 15 $$ FORECASTER...DANGELO REQUESTED BY...MR SHANNON HENRY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20100407.RNG35.01/CTP