FNUS71 KCTP 081811 FWSCTP SPOT FORECAST FOR BLAIRS VALLEY ROAD...PA BUREAU OF FORESTRY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 211 PM EDT THU APR 8 2010 FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1333 EDT ON APRIL 08. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE. .DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ENTERING WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AS OF 2 PM EDT. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER WEST-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM JOHNSTOWN TO BRADFORD. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY -FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE BURN AREA WILL BE AFTER 4 PM EDT...WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT /FROM SOUTH TO WEST/ LIKELY OCCURRING THIS EVENING APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 6 AND 9 PM EDT. HOWEVER...ERRATIC BEHAVIOR IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE BURN AREA THIS AFTERNOON. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. SHOWERS UNTIL EARLY MORNING. MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 40. MAX HUMIDITY........75 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THE COLD FRONT AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF PCPN......90 PERCENT. LAL.................>25 STRIKES UNTIL 2300...THEN NO TSTMS. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM SKY (%).............100 100 100 100 95 92 89 86 85 76 59 50 WEATHER COV.........DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF LKY LKY LKY WEATHER TYPE........RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW TEMP................65 63 60 59 57 56 53 51 49 47 44 42 MIN HUMIDITY........56 59 63 63 62 62 63 64 65 68 71 75 20 FT WIND DIR......SW W W W W W W W W W W W 20 FT WIND SPD......14 13 13 12 12 12 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 FT WIND GUST.....25 25 25 25 25 25 20 20 20 20 20 20 TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW W W W W W NW NW NW NW NW TRANSP WIND SPD.....26 25 24 23 21 20 21 23 24 24 23 23 CHC OF PCPN (%).....90 90 90 90 90 60 60 60 0 0 0 0 LAL.................5 5 5 5 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 55. MIN HUMIDITY........33 PERCENT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 25 TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT. LAL.................NO TSTMS. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............49 47 46 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 58 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........ TEMP................40 42 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 55 53 51 MIN HUMIDITY........78 70 62 54 48 43 39 36 34 33 35 36 TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW NW W W W W W W W W W TRANSP WIND SPD.....23 24 24 25 25 26 26 26 26 26 28 29 CHC OF PCPN (%).....0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAL.................1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 $$ FORECASTER...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL REQUESTED BY...JAMES SMITH TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20100408.BLAIR.02/CTP